8102/1 Cheltenham Each-way Accumulator Tip and Lucky 15

With just over a week to go until we hear the famous Cheltenham roar, it is time to start looking at some multiples and putting together some horses who can potentially give us a decent sum of money if successful at Prestbury Park.

The lead up to Cheltenham week can be a mix of excitement and dread. The dread and worry of horses falling by the wayside and not making it to their intended target. We’ve already seen the clash in the Arkle taken away from us with Sir Gino out and also the Turners Novices Hurdle become weaker due to the setback of the much-fancied Kawaboomga.

With not every horses target 100% known or locked in currently, the shape of some races will look very different to what the betting suggests, come the day. My selections below are horses I believe that will not only shorten from now until the off, but horses that I think are good enough to win their respective races. My opinion has changed on a couple of them from the start of the season but you can’t be too stubborn in this game and I’m happy to back them now and have confidence they all run their race.

We’re taking a chance using the ante-post market on bet365 for this one but if you want the insurance of NRNB, the same 4-fold bet is 3671/1 at bet365.

 

BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase

I am under no illusion that Jonbon is the best horse in the race and the most likely winner, but with how I think the race is going to be ran, the likely ground conditions and the race potentially cutting up, I think Solness is overpriced and the play here.

Towards the top of the betting, we have Energumene (11 YO and won’t get soft ground), Gaelic Warrior (rumours are he misses the Festival or goes Ryanair) and Il Est Francais (also likely goes to the Ryanair. Add Banbridge (Gold Cup), El Fabiolo (not going) and a whole list of others that are clearly not going, you’ve got a very small field and I think my selection will love that.

Solness isn’t a selection for the trends as he doesn’t tick many of the ‘previous winners’ boxes but that doesn’t stop me believing he can win this contest.

Rarely, a horse is still finding improvement after his 15^th chase start but that’s exactly what Solness has done this season in what were his 16^th and 17^th chase starts. His 16^th start saw him win his 1^st Grade 1 when he won over Xmas when an unfancied 28/1. That was deemed a shock but he followed up that success by beating the same horses (Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale and Captain Guinness) at the DRF 4  weeks ago. That was a career-best where he made all and took the running to his rivals, hitting a high of 34mph in the process. The beaten jockeys in behind him were criticised for giving him a soft lead but they simply couldn’t lay up with the tactics and speed Danny Mullins & Solness carried out that day.

His form before that doesn’t read the best and includes a 25l defeat to Jonbon in December at Sandown in the Tingle Creek and a disappointing 41l defeat to Unexpected Party when 11^th in last year’s Grand Annual. In fact none of his first 15 starts over fences would point to a Queen Mother contender, but we are here for the here and now and a bit of recency bias would tell you he’s improved remarkably since Xmas and isn’t without a chance in this prestigious race. Even though he has had 17 chase starts, he’s still only a 7 YO and that’s why I think he can be open to further improvement.

I don’t expect Jonbon to give Solness the size of lead he got at the DRF, and theres every chance the race could be set up for him to deliver and finally win at the Festival, but a chance is what I’m taking.

Jonbon’s only 3 defeats in his career have come at Cheltenham and if Solness gets into the rhythm he has on his previous 2 starts, there’s a possibility inconsistencies in his jumping creep in and can become vulnerable.

Solness will appreciate the ground on the quicker side and his chances improve if the long-term weather forecast is correct and we have little rain from now until the Festival. If Solness does find Jonbon too good for him, I don’t expect him to be out the top 3 and that’s why I think he’s a great Each Way bet. He’s the only horse I think can topple Jonbon and he is a fantastic bet at its current price.

Back Solness 9/1 EW Bet365.

 

Ryanair Mares Novice Hurdle (Dawn Run)

Sixandahalf might be fighting it out with Maughreen at the top of the market but I’m of the opinion that she’s still underpriced. She has shortened continually over the last 4-6 weeks but I still think she’s a bet at the current 10/3 out there. She impressed me on hurdles debut where she powered away from her rivals over 2m2f to win by 12 lengths in January. That’s her only try over hurdles and her trainer Gavin Cromwell must be confident enough to come here off the back of that and little experience.

She is another that doesn’t tick all the key trends that previous winners have brought coming into this race but I believe she has the ability to win. Coming from the flat she has a great mix of speed and stamina, which is a great asset to have in this race.

There has been a lot of hype horses during the winter for this race but many have disappointed throughout the season and I don’t believe there are many strong contenders to my fancy. Co-favourite Maughreen also has only 1 start to her name but I think that’s been down to more luck than judgement due to setbacks during the season. Even though the top 2 have both only had 1 hurdles start each, Sixandahalf has much more racecourse experience having raced 9 times under rules throughout her career.

Maughreen’s only try over timber come over 2m3½ on heavy ground and I would be worried that she lacks the speed for a 2m1 race at Cheltenham. There are a couple of threats in behind and my main worry would come from Closutton but in the shape of Karoline Bambou.

This race has gone to Britain for the last 3 years and they have a chance again due to the Paul Nicholls duo of Jubilee Alpha & Just a Rose and Ben Pauling’s Diva Luna. I wouldn’t be put off too much by their chances but I believe Sixandahalf is the class mare in this field with ample ability and I believe the race will be going back to Ireland in 2025.

Back Sixandahalf 10/3 EW Bet365.

 

Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle

This is another race where I want to take on the short priced favourite as I believe theres value in behind him in the market. Last years winner Teahupoo is a worthy favourite and most definitely the likely winner and even though there aren’t too many dangers to him, we only need one to take his crown away from him.

A chance goes to Lucky Place who I think offers outstanding Each Way value still at 10/1.

He is a horse that has shown to like Cheltenham and was 4^th in the Coral Cup at last year’s Festival when all of Nicky Henderson’s horses were under a cloud and ran poorly. That experience as a 5 YO would have done him no harm whatsoever and he has taken that into this season where his form has really kicked on. He has improved his RPR and OR with every run over hurdles and I love improving sorts going into a Stayers Hurdle. This has been won in the past by Thistlecrack, Paisley Park and Flooring Porter who have all improved throughout the season and I think Lucky Place can follow suit.

Apart from that Coral Cup 4^th, Lucky Place has finished in the 1^st 2 of his races in all of his hurdle starts. The form of his win on NYD at Cheltenham in the Relkeel was boosted when 2^nd that day, Gowell Road (who he gave 6lb to), won the Cleeve hurdle on trials day. The substance of that form can be questioned but it’s winning form and one that shouldn’t be taken lightly.

The one unknown is the 3m trip that the Stayers Hurdle is. He has never run further than 2m5f before so there will be question marks over whether he will see out the 3 miles up the hill. The breeding side of him will tell you that the question mark is a valid one as well and if the ground were to come up heavy then you would worry about getting home. With the long-term forecast showing little rain, I believe the drier ground will be a huge help to him in getting the trip.

Lucky Place is a horse that ticks quite a few of the trends and im happy to have him onside. Hes the right age, a 2^nd season hurdler, won last time out and has strong form over the shorter distance.

Even though this year’s race looks better than last year’s renewal, there are only a few horses I can see troubling Teahupoo and having a chance turning in and for that reason, Lucky Place is a great EW bet. He’s a horse I cannot see out of the 3 who has a very winnable chance. If Nicky has a good start to the week, I can see my charge shortening before the off.

Back Lucky Place 10/1 EW Bet365.

 

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

The Albert Bartlett is a race I try and not get involved in until a lot nearer the Festival as it often throws up big priced winners and can often be difficult to get a handle on during the season.

Here we have another race where I want to take the top of the market on. The top 2 (in an NRNB market) are unlikely to go as The Yellow Clay and Final Demand looked destined for the Turners Novices Hurdle. With those 2 out it leaves the Big Westerner as the clear favourite as that’s definitely a horse I want to take on. She may have good form in the book this season and looked well but I just cannot have a mare at this trip at Cheltenham in what is usually a gruelling race.

Another horse who I think is overpriced and a great EW play is Wingmen. He’s a horse like my previous selection who always runs his race and has never been out the top 3 in his career. He has ran well in grade 1’s this year without laying a glove on the winners when finishing 2^nd to Final demand and 3^rd to The Yellow Clay. As mentioned, those 2 horses aren’t turning up here so this contest will be weaker than his previous assignments.

Wingmen has a good mix of experience on a racetrack. He won an Irish Point to Point (9 of the last 13 winners of this had), won a bumper (10 of the previous 14 winners had) and has had 4 hurdle starts (12 of the last 20 winners had done so too).

Even though he hasn’t had winning graded form this season, it’s still form that looks well received.

The race throws up big priced winners and doesn’t necessarily suit the classy type. Wingmen ticks a lot of the boxes I would want in a Bartlett horse and I think hes an outstanding EW play. I would be amazed if he goes off the 16/1 you can still get on him now.

Back Wingmen 16/1 EW Bet365.

 

Cheltenham Festival EW Accumulator Tip

• BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase – Solness (9/1)
• Ryanair Mares Novice Hurdle (Dawn Run) – Sixandahalf (10/3)
• Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle – Lucky Place (10/1)
• Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle – Wingmen (16/1)

Accumulator Odds – 8102/1 with bet365.

Add these selections to a £1 each-way lucky 15 for a potential return of £14,262.

 

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