18/1 Grand National Betting Tip – Which of the Main Contenders will win at Aintree?

The UK’s version of the race that stops the nation. 40 Runners covering two laps of the Liverpool course running in total 4m 2 1/2f  and jumping 30 fences. Some of which are the most famous fences in horse racing Becher’s Brook, The Chair and the smallest fence in the race, Foinavon.

Since the efforts to improve the safety and welfare of the horses and weights being more compressed (basically meaning there is less difference between the top and bottom weight) the classier horses have certainly had much more of a prominent role in proceedings. And horses can get away with a lot more including being a little low and brushing through the fences and if you watch his races back, this is something the great Tiger Roll did so well in his two national wins. Some would say it even saves energy being that economical over them.  That being said there is a difference between being smart and brushing through the fences then just having no respect for them and barging your way through them.

Here are my thoughts on the 5 horses at the top of the market;

 

Any Second Now- 10/1

If there was one horse to take out of last year’s Aintree Grand National, he would be it. Well backed before the off, he made a mistake and then not long before the halfway mark he was badly, badly hampered by a faller and pretty much stopped dead and was shoved to last. Mark Walsh did a super job in keeping the partnership intact, but in all honesty, his chance had gone. He had to use a lot more petrol than I’m sure Mark would have liked to get him back into contention which in the end part of the race, really told, however, to come third after that was performance and a half.

The minute the race ended, I’m sure this year would have been the target and he has been campaigned with that in mind. Just the 3 runs, 2 runs over hurdles one over 2 1/2m hurdle run to blow the cobwebs away, followed by a run in the Galmoy Hurdle. His one run over fences in the Bobbyjo chase (which is very much seen as a Grand National trial), did end up in a win, when it looked very unlikely, he rallied well and stayed on very strongly beating a fellow rival Escaria Ten in a photo, giving him 8lbs. Giving the idea that once again, the further he goes, the better he will be.

When given the chance he is a very consistent horse, who knows what it’s like to be in amongst it all in a big field race. He is a solid favourite, who you know will run his race, jump and most likely baring another bit of bad luck he will get round. However, you can’t help feeling that now being a 10yo, last year was his year and he could be prone to a younger rival who may just take that win off him.

 

Delta Work – 9/1

Arguably the classiest horse in the field, rated 170 in his pomp, winning multiple Grade 1’s over fences as a novice and in open company. Now running off 160 (he’s not even carrying top weight) he certainly has the potential to blow the field away. However, he had lost his way slightly over the last year, with some disappointing performances and the one common thing in all those performances was his jumping, a lot of his post-race comments read “not fluent, mistake and no impression”.

However the Cross Country, at Cheltenham seemed to find him a new lease of life, he sat out the back, hunted his way around, getting a good sighter of his fences and then didn’t really make his move till about 2 out, when he and Tiger Roll pulled clear of the rest and gamely went on to win. Although he put an impressive round of jumping and you can mark up his performance even more as he went against the stats and won first time round the fences, his past jumping performances do cause a bit of concern especially if they employ the same tactics. There is less room for error as making up ground will be key and not only that he will have weave and work around the fallers and the horses falling back through8the field. However, he will no doubt be a popular choice following the Tiger Roll route it’s easy to see why. If he was to put up a similar performance to his Cheltenham win he would be extremely hard to beat.

 

Escaria Ten – 18/1

Probably one the most lightly raced runners in the whole field only having the 12 races under rules, 7 of them over fences and a second season chaser, although yet to scale the heights of his rivals at the top the market, he definitely has the most room for improvement. He had a solid start to his novice chase career, started out in a very hot beginners chase over 2m5F which was won by Monkfish and then won second time around when stepped up to 3m. He was second in a Grade 3 before going off the 11/4 favourite and coming 3rd in the National Hunt Chase where he ran well but was just beaten by two very good horses. One of which was Galvin, who obviously ran a cracker in the Gold Cup this year, but just lacked the pace and Next Destination who although we have not seen since the race, is a very good horse and highly thought of at the Nicholls yard who saw him as a potential Gold Cup horse himself.

He did also beat Snow Leopardess, who he was giving 7lbs to that day (vs 5lbs that he’s giving her in the Grand National). Also behind that day was Remastered,who has since run a stomer in the Ladbrokes Trophy and looked to be coming to win before he fell 4 out.

His run next time out in the Irish National, you can just put a line through it. He ran too poor to be true. This season he had the two runs, first of which was just to get him out and get a run into him. Then was the Bobbyjo Chase where he was just touched off by Any Second Now.

This like many, has obviously been the plan for quite some time and his run last time out although was beaten, was a very good run. I can see him improving even more for the run and the step back up in trip and should go very well.

 

Snow Leopardess – 9/1

This horse could be the new queen of the Aintree Grand National if she wins, and would really be a great story. Having come back into racing from being a broodmare, as well as being a striking grey, she will most certainly take the fancy of a lot of the nation. She really has had an extraordinary season, running 3 times and winning 3 times, including when winning The Becher Chase in December. It was her first time around the National fences and she took to them like a duck to water. She flew around, travelled strongly and stayed on very stoutly indeed to hang on in front of Hill Sixteen to win.

She then went to confirm her good form when winning a listed mares chase at Exeter, going off a short price favourite, she never looked in trouble and won very comfortably indeed. S

he will be a great winner, but whether she can be good enough to actually win, is something else. You know she will put everything into it, she will be up there with the pace in a good position tracking the leaders, but it’s very hard to see her win. I can see her scraping around for 4th/5th but at the very least, if you back her, you will get a run for your money as she’s obviously in very good form and very importantly her jumping is solid and she is yet to fall.

 

Enjoy D’Allen – 12/1

Although is only an 8 year old, he has had a fair bit of racing. Rated 148 over fences but only 116 over hurdles (in which his last race was over hurdles and he could only manage 5th), he’s had 20 runs under rules, 10 over hurdles and 10 over fences. As his marks tells you, he’s a much better chaser than he is a hurdler and also his 3 career wins have been over fences (2 under rules and 1 in a P2P). He was recently bought by JP McManus, which tells you a lot about his potential in this race. They are much wiser men than myself and must think he has a very good chance.

However, he has a fair bit of improvement to do to justify that. Although he’s only had the one run this season over fences, when 3rd in the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas and he was unlucky when hampered by a faller, I just find it hard to see him improving past some of his rivals to win. He’s another consistent performer and in the main does jump well. He was 3rd in the Irish National, so it’s easy to see why they have targeted this race, but the fences here bring a whole new test, this will be the first time he will be coming across the Irish sea and for me, he just looks a horse, who always seems to find one or two that finish in front of him and just lacks that bit of class, that this race now brings.

 

Grand National Betting Tip – ESCARIA TEN

BEST ODDS – 18/1 with William Hill (5 places each-way)

BEST EACH-WAY TERMS – 16/1 with Betfred (6 places each-way)

Although Delta Work, if in the same form as last time, will be hard to beat, I can’t change my mind and I have been very keen on Escaria Ten for this race for quite some time. The form of last year’s National Hunt Chase is rock solid. The form of that race has been good to follow, it has worked out very well and he is very well handicapped on that bare form.

The handicapper has been very lenient on him giving him a mark of 151 meaning he will only carry 11stone around and being so lightly raced I can definitely see him being better than that mark, I have been waiting for a big race for him since and I think he is tailor-made for it. He jumps well, the test of stamina will be no problem for him and should run an absolutely huge race and I am as confident as you can be in a Grand National tip about him.

 

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