Cheltenham Tips for the 2023 New Year’s Day Fixture from @Rideout_Racing

The New Year’s Day meeting at Cheltenham is one of the most anticipated on the National Hunt calendar and we have got an in-depth preview and tips for each race from @Rideout_Racing for the seven races.

Things get underway at 12.10pm and some of the races are also covered by ITV Racing. Read the preview and tips below for New Year’s Day at Cheltenham.

 

12.10pm Cheltenham

Gentle Slopes can give us a winner to start the new year

The opening contest of the day is the Ballymore Maiden Hurdle over an extended two and a half miles. Firestep is held in extremely high regard by trainer Nicky Henderson and has two bumper wins to his name. The form of those bumpers wouldn’t read too strong and after a 651-day absence, I would be inclined to look elsewhere. Weveallbeencaught made a hugely encouraging debut over course and distance behind the well-regarded Hermes Allen. Music Drive finished second that day and has been well beaten off a mark of 129, so I would question the form. Weveallbeencaught shaped as though three miles would be his game and he was due to run in the Albert Bartlett trial at the track in December but that meeting was abandoned due to frozen ground. I subsequently doubt the plan would’ve been to come back in trip in here and I think he may lack the speed of one or two of his rivals. Long term I suspect he may well be the best horse in the race, but unless the rain comes and really softens the ground, I could see him getting outpaced.

Gentle Slopes (9/2) is a horse I have recommended on a couple of occasions and he duly rewarded us with a 14/1 success at the November Meeting in a bumper. I duly followed him in again on hurdles debut last time out where he slightly disappointed, finishing third behind Attacca and Master Chewy. Attaca was due to run in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, whilst Master Chewy has some strong form lines to his name. Given that was over the minimum trip, I suspect it was a decent effort first time over hurdlers and the fourth placed horse Timeforatune franked the form when winning his next start. Gentle Slopes will need to improve his jumping and I would hope the step up in trip will help him do so. After being outpaced, he stayed on gamely last time out and I would be confident this intermediate distance will be his trip for now.

 

12.45pm Cheltenham

Daly can hit the right note with Rapper in the second

Next on the cards we have a handicap chase over three miles, two and a half furlongs. Farinet deservedly sits at the top of the market after an easy success in the Welsh Grand National Trial at Chepstow. A 10lb rise may not be enough to stop him following up here, but he’s short enough and I have decided to look for an each way alternative. Rapper 13/2 has form figures of 121 in the month of January, with the second coming at the track on this card over hurdles back in 2020. His form suggests he is a horse that improves with running and his two start this season have yielded form figures of 93, hinting he is coming to the boil. He stayed on well last time to finish 11 lengths behind Fontaine Collonges and The Big Breakaway at Haydock. That looks a good piece of form. The Big Breakaway has since finished second in the Welsh Grand National off a pound below top weight and Fontaine Collonges finished fourth in a good Kempton handicap when a little outpaced off a 5lb higher mark.  Rapper has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for that run, bringing him down to his last winning mark of 137. Trainer Henry Daly has had 3 winners from his last 10 runners at odds of 4/1, 4/1 and 9/1 so the yard would appear to be in good form. Rapper should relish this trip around Cheltenham and any rain that falls wouldn’t harm his chances. I would be disappointed if he isn’t hitting the frame.

 

1.20pm Cheltenham

Jonbon form to be franked again

The Grade 2 Paddy Power Novices’ Chase over two miles, four and a half furlongs is next up on the cards where Monmiral 5/4 heads the betting for King George winning duo Harry Cobden and Paul Nicholls. Monmiral made a hugely encouraging start to life of fences when finishing second to the extremely exciting and current Arkle favourite Jonbon. I thought he jumped superbly that day and was just outpaced over the minimum trip. Jonbon had too much speed for him at a crucial stage in the race and Monmiral was unable to quicken with him. He duly plugged on under hands and heels and I am thrilled to see connections step him up in trip here. Jonbon has franked the form, winning the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices Chase and Boothill (8 lengths back in second) won the Grade 2 Wayward Lad over Christmas.

The main danger to Monmiral, according to the betting, is Thunder Rock for trainer Olly Murphy. The Son of Shirocco has improved considerably for a fence and the handicapper has him on a mark of 150, 15lbs higher than his hurdles mark. For all he has clearly improved for the larger obstacles, Monmiral was a 149 rated hurdler and given there was plenty to like about his chase debut, I believe he is entitled to improve plenty too. I think the step up in trip is likely to prove key for Monmiral and I would hope he has the class edge over Thunder Rock.

Beauport was brilliant on fencing debut when landing the listed Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase at Carlise but he was turned over last time out and didn’t appear to jump nowhere near as well. I fear he may not possess as many gears as the front two in the market and he faces no easy task conceding 5lb to the pair. The Real Whacker is the only horse in the race with winning course form but I worry about the step back in trip for him. Monmiral is a short enough price but I think he’s the class act in the race and will hopefully take a fair bit of beating.

 

1.55pm Cheltenham

Happy can be Lucky for punters in competitive handicap chase

The big handicap of the day is the Paddy Power New Year’s Day Chase over an extended two and half miles. Midnight River and Il Ridoto are closely matched on form and head the current betting. Just over a length separated them in the Paddy Power Gold Cup back in November but I would be inclined to take them both on. Il Ridoto shaped to me as though he wouldn’t mind a step back in trip, whilst Midnight River may want a step up in trip to be seen to best effect. War Lord has been on my radar for a handicap like this as the Arkle form seems to be franked every other Saturday! He took an alarming walk in the market before the December meeting was called off and that would just be a niggling doubt in my mind. Brave Seasca was awesome on his seasonal reappearance but has a 9lb hike in the weights to deal with and subsequently must shoulder top weight.

Before the December meeting was cancelled, I liked the chances of Happygolucky 10/1 for the feature handicap. That meeting was duly abandoned and he went on to run an absolute cracker behind L’Homme Presse and Into Overdrive. Into Overdrive has since won the Rowland Meyrick off a 4lb higher mark and L’Homme Presse unseated when fighting out the finish with Bravemansgame in the King George. Into Overdrive looks an extremely progressive staying chaser and L’Homme has a great chance in this seasons Gold Cup, so the fact Happygolucky finished so close to the pair off a 1lb lower mark reads extremely well in this company. Given how well he jumps and travels, I don’t think this step back in trip will be an issue. In 11 lifetime starts he has never finished outside the first four, including a fourth in the 2020 Martin Pipe, a second in the 2021 Ultima and a fine win at the 2021 Aintree Festival. The bounce factor is a concern, but he has been given time to recover after that excellent third in the Rehearsal Chase and I think he may well prove a little bit better than his mark of 152.

 

2.30pm Cheltenham

Get ready to dance as team Twiston-Davies enter the winners enclosure

An excellent field of nine go to post for the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle over the intermediate trip.  This looks a fantastic renewal and the betting is headed by Mares Hurdle winner Marie’s Rock. At the prices, I would be inclined to take her on. She has been a tricky mare to train over the years and has been well beaten off a 273- and 334-day break. She has won once on her seasonal reappearance and is clearly dangerous receiving weight all round, but Queens Brook let the Mares Hurdle form down this week and she likely beat an extremely tired Epatante at Punchestown. On official figures at the weights, I Like To Move It 4/1 has 3lbs to find with Marie’s Rock and he is more than entitled to do so after a commanding success in this year’s Greatwood Hurdle. It did not look the strongest of renewals but I Like To Move It was far too good for his rivals, fending off the challenge of Gin Cocco and powering away to the line. He shouldered top weight to victory that day and may well improve for this step up in trip.

Knappers Hill faces a difficult task conceding weight all round but has looked a much-improved horse this season. He is held on form by both I Like To Move It and First Street on their clash in the Betfair Hurdle last season. First Street finished third that day and went on to place second in the County Hurdle behind the incredibly impressive State Man. That form reads extremely well now and First Street reappeared with a fine weight carrying performance in the Gerry Feilden. The fourth horse, Yorksea, beaten close to eighteen lengths, has come out and won since so there’s a solid look to that form too.

This really does look a competitive renewal and I find it extremely hard to separate those at the top of the market. First Street and I Like To Move It both shape as though this step up to the intermediate trip could bring about more improvement. Of the pair I would just favour I Like To Move It. He clearly loves Cheltenham and I was seriously impressed with the manner in which he flew up the hill last time out. He hit the line hard that day under top weight and if there is to be a horse that may go on to contest the Champion Hurdle this season, I believe it is him.

 

3.05pm Cheltenham

Progressive sort can strike for Greatrex

The penultimate race of the day is the Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle over three miles. Dolphin Square, Call Me Lord and Wilde About Oscar are very closely matched on their form at Sandown, highlighted by the fact they all went up 2lbs after an extremely close three-way finish. Of the trio, I would probably side with Wilde About Oscar to come out on top as he looks dangerously well handicapped on old form. Despite that, my play in the race will be Abuffalosoldier 5/1 for Bredon Powell and Warren Greatrix. Stepped up to three miles for the first time on his last start, he was well supported and stayed on strongly to win a competitive Newbury handicap. Placed horses, Steal A March and Barbados Buck’s, have franked the form, fighting out the finish to a Wincanton handicap on Boxing Day. Abuffalosoldier went up 6lbs for that Newbury success which looks well within his reach given his age and how unexposed he is as a three miler. He races from near the bottom of the weights and appears to be a progressive sort in a race where lots of the field have some serious question marks against their name. I believe Cheltenham will play to his strengths and he’s one of my stronger fancies on the card.

 

3.40pm Cheltenham

Two against the field in the lucky last

The lucky last is a listed bumper over a mile and six furlongs. There is very little form to go off here but two runners caught my eye. Dancing In Brazil (11/4) stormed clear to win a Huntington bumper and certainly shaped as though he may enjoy coming up the Cheltenham Hill. The second-placed horse has come out and finished second again so there is a little substance to the form. Of the horses that haven’t raced, I thought Gallant Approach (16/1) was an interesting runner for trainer Hughie Morrison. Owned by Pangfield Racing V, connections will be hoping Gallant Approach is as smart as their other horses. They saddled Urban Artist to success in a Cheltenham bumper back in November 2019 and more recently enjoyed a fine run from Our Jester to finish seventh in last season’s Champion Bumper. Given they run a relatively small operation, it could be telling they send a horse with a flat pedigree here for his racecourse debut.

 

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