Arkle Chase Tips 2024 – Cheltenham Festival Day 1 2.10pm
For our Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase betting tips, we asked Ciaran Murphy to preview the day 1 race and he’s come up with 9/1 and 20/1 tips.
The Cheltenham Tuesday race provides a test for racing’s best national hunt chasers over the minimum trip of just under two miles and this race is always one of the highlights of the Cheltenham Festival week.
The race is named after racing legend Arkle, who won the Cheltenham Gold Cup three times in the 1960s. The second race of the Cheltenham Festival is the Arkle Chase, due off at 2.10pm on Tuesday 12th March.
This race has really been a huge stepping stone for some great horses, who have gone on to achieve further glory in their careers. Previous winners include Moscow Flyer, a dual winner of the Tingle Creek; Sprinter Sacre (2012), Timeform’s third-best Chaser ever and Altior who shone over a glittering 21-win career, which included 10 G1s.
See our Arkle Trophy 2024 tips below with a preview of the race and a look at the main contenders.
2.10pm – Arkle Challenge Trophy Tip
The Arkle is a race that usually goes to a short-priced fancy with 7 of the last 9 winners being favourites and 5 of those going off odds-on. This year is completely different and we are currently 7/2 the field. It is as a competitive betting market as I can remember and that is largely due to most of the field having question marks over them. My thought process of this race has gone round in circles a number of times but I’ve landed on the thing to do and that’s back the best horse in the race. GAELIC WARRIOR on pure ability, should be a cut above this field and if it was run on a right-handed track then he would be odds on. Fortunately for the rest of the field, it is on a left-handed track and that brings them all into play due to Gaelic Warrior’s tendency to jump/shift right at his fences. It is tough backing a horse who is capable of doing this, especially in an Arkle but I’m willing to take the chance at the prices. He jumped several fences well and straight on his last start going left-handed at the DRF and even though this course isn’t ideal for that characteristic, his engine is something the rest cannot match. He blew out over 2m5 at the DRF but the drop back down to 2 miles could be to his favour here and if he has recovered from the fall and race from Leopardstown then I think he wins. I think Quilixios is the next best and would be a good EW play to follow him home.
- 2.10pm Tip: Gaelic Warrior (win) – 7/2 with Bet365.
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Arkle Ante-post Tips 2024
This would have been a very short article if written this time last week. Two words would have been all that was needed. Marine Wins. And if you had told me that he had lost at the DRF, my next question would have been, how short is Gaelic Warrior now then?
So after both horses bombed out at the weekend, now is probably a good time to have a deeper look at the Cheltenham Festival Arkle betting odds and see if there is value to be had. Firstly, our usual delve into the stats,
- Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 (4 of last 6 were aged 6)
- Favourites have an excellent record in the race with 9/12 winning (8 out of the last 9)
- 10/12 winners had previously won at the course, while the same number had had 3 runs that season.
So given the strong record of favourites, it makes sense to start with Marine Nationale. Given his Supreme Novice Hurdle win last year, his unblemished record before Saturday and his imperious jumping display on chase debut, there will be those who are willing to forgive and be thankful for a better price. But that loss has magnified some red flags that were there before the race. Why give your unbeaten stable star a wind op over the summer and then if that was successful, why the first-time tongue strap on chase debut? Yes, he looked excellent that day, but take a closer look at that form and tell me which of the other market principles would not be able to do that to a field led by Firm Footings (who may even have been run with a Handicap mark in mind).
The ground was offered by trainer Barry O’Connell as an excuse this weekend but I don’t think it was any softer than when he beat Irish Point in the Royal Bond and the way he completely cut out before the last would be a massive concern. Were he in the hands of a more experienced trainer, I would be more confident that they could get him right for March but at his price, without knowing the ground conditions on the day, he can’t be looked at as a reasonable antepost proposition, albeit that if the ground were come up good, I would be certainly more fearful.
The second Horse mentioned above, Gaelic Warrior was also well touted before the Dublin Racing Festival with many suggesting the speed of his fencing made him an Arkle horse. There was clearly a physical issue with him on Sunday, rather than a non-staying effort and I would be confident that if he does turn up at Prestbury Park, it won’t be at the minimum trip.
It is only fitting that we next look at the winner of the weekend’s race, Il Etait Temps who was extremely well-backed (20s into 6s) for the contest. He certainly comes into calculations but in each of the last 2 years, he has run fairly modestly at Cheltenham after an excellent DRF run and again, I am willing to look elsewhere.
Found a Fifty is a horse who I would have suggested was slightly below the very top level but he has to warrant respect given his previous 2 runs. He is a strong staying 2 miler who will be suited by a strong run race and in my opinion will relish the hill. The niggling doubt for me is that when when was thrown into the very top level at Aintree, he disappointed and while he is undoubtedly a better Chaser, his odds are a little on the short side and he is a reluctant pass.
Of the English challenge, while Iroko looked more of staying type over hurdles, his jumping would certainly bring him into contention, although off a layoff, first time up, he may appreciate a little longer trip. JPR One has been put up as a live outside chance but while he jumps well, a half-length defeat of Matata is not Arkle form in my eyes and I am happy to pass over him here.
The first 3 Grade Ones don’t he opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival reminded us that it is foolish to dismiss Willie Mullins 2nd, 3rd or even 4th strings. With Facile Vega surely stepping up in trip, that leave me with 2 options: Blood Destiny and Hunters Yarn.
The former has a couple of big stats to overcome as he would be the first 5-year-old winner since Well Chief in 2004. He also disappointed when well supported for last year’s Triumph Hurdle (read our 2024 Triumph Hurdle tips here) so the question of course suitability needs to be asked. His major asset is his jumping which was spectacular on his chasing debut. While he was turned over at odds on last time out, that was over slightly longer than 2miles 2f and there is a chance that his conquerer that day (Spillane’s Tower) is a very good horse and his extreme stamina made Blood Destiny look like a non-stayer. His price was pushed out to 20/1 and this is still available today and is one that I think is too big. (12s NRNB). I am not sure what the running plans are but he goes well fresh so it wouldn’t be a concern to see him rock up next time out in March.
However, the main Arkle betting tip for this year will be HUNTERS YARN who runs for the same connections as last year’s winner El Fabiolo. He was a more than decent hurdler, who put away the likes of American Mike and Inothewayyourthinkin with ease and who for any other trainer, would have been worthy of a run in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. He was a well-supported 11/2 second favourite when disappointing in the County Hurdle last year and his run at Fairyhouse may have come too soon after. However, he seems to have improved markedly for fences and would have won both his starts this season easily but for a last fence fall on debut. You would hope that he learned from that mistake but he again almost threw the race away with a penultimate fence error last time out. I think overall he jumps quite well and he undoubtedly has a big engine and at the prices in a wide open contest, at 9/1, he will do for me.
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Arkle Chase Betting Tips 2024
Hunters Yarn (win) – 8/1 with Betfred’s Cheltenham sign-up offer.
Blood Destiny (each-way) – 20/1 with bet365’s Cheltenham sign-up offer.
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CLAIM!
2024 Arkle Trends from the Cheltenham Festival
- Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7
- Price – 6 of the last 12 favorites have won, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 9 of the last 12 winners ran within the last 51 days, 11/12 won on their last start before Cheltenham
- 3/12 winners ran in the Arkle Novice Chase (Leopardstown) on their last run, 3 of the 3 won
- 2/12 winners ran in the Game Spirit Chase (Newbury) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won
- Previous Course Form – 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 run at Cheltenham previously, 6/12 had at least 1 win previously at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 8/12 had at least 3 wins over 15-17 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 10/12 had at least 2 wins over hurdles
- Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 1 chase win, 8/12 had at least 2 chase wins
- Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 151 or higher
- Graded Wins – 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1 or grade 2 race
- Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 12/12 had at least 1 win that season, 8/12 had at least 2 wins that season.
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Cheltenham Day 1 Tips
*Click the race name to read our in-depth preview of the race with ante-post betting tips
| Race | Tip | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Supreme Novice Hurdle | Slade Steel (EW) | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - Arkle | Gaelic Warrior | 7/2 |
| 2.50pm - Ultima Handicap | Chianti Classico (EW) | 15/2 |
| Trelawne (EW) | 15/2 | |
| 3.30pm - Champion Hurdle | Iberico Lord W/O State Man AND Irish Point | 15/8 |
| 4.10pm - Mares' Hurdle | Telmesomethinggirl WITHOUT Lossiemouth AND Ashroe Diamond (EW) | 5/1 |
| 4.50pm - Boodles Fred Winter | Palamon (EW) | 20/1 |
| Ose Partir (EW) | 14/1 | |
| 5.30pm - National Hunt Chase | Salvador Ziggy | 11/2 |
Cheltenham Day 2 Tips
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle | Predators Gold (ew) | 10/1 Bet |
| 2.10pm - Brown Advisory Novice Chase | Fact to File | 10/11 |
| 2.50pm - Coral Cup | Guard Your Dreams (ew) | 25/1 |
| Brazil (ew) | 16/1 | |
| 3.30pm - Queen Mother Champion Chase | El Fabiolo double with Ballyburn (1.30pm) | 5/4 |
| 4.10pm - Cross Country Chase | Coko Beach | 4/1 |
| 4.50pm - Grand Annual Chase | Liberty Hunter (ew) | 13/2 |
| 5.30pm - Champion Bumper | C’est Ta Chance (ew) | 16/1 |
| Cantico (ew) | 12/1 |
Cheltenham Day 3 Tips
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Turners Novice Chase | Ginnys Destiny | 4/1 |
| 2.10pm - Pertemps Network Final | Cuthbertdibble | 9/1 |
| 2.50pm - Ryanair Chase | Stage Star | 9/2 |
| 3.30pm - Stayers Hurdle | Teahupoo | 7/4 |
| 4.10pm - Plate Handicap Chase | Theatre Man (ew) | 9/2 |
| 4.50pm - Mares Novice Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead | 13/8 |
| 5.30pm - Kim Muir Chase | Whacker Clan | 12/1 |
Cheltenham Day 4 Tips
| Race | Tip | Bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Triumph Hurdle | Majborough | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - County Hurdle | King of Kingsfield | 5/1 |
| So Scottish (ew) | 14/1 | |
| 2.50pm - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle | Gidleigh Park | 7/1 |
| 3.30pm - Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs | 11/10 |
| 4.10pm - Festival Challenge Cup Hunters Chase | It's on the Line | 9/4 |
| Premier Magic | 13/2 | |
| 4.50pm - Paddy Power Mares Chase | Riviere D’Etel (each-way) | 20/1 |
| 5.30pm - Martin Pipe Hurdle | Better Days Ahead | 10/1 |
