2024 Welsh Grand National Ante-post Preview, Predictions and 12/1 Betting Tip
With all the top-notch graded action over the festive period, its important not to forget about the Coral Welsh Grand National that takes place on Friday 27th December and our ante-post preview has a 12/1 betting tip.
Ran over a marathon trip of 3m6½f (often on testing ground), a true test of stamina is needed just to get home, let alone win the race. The weather often plays its part in the race with 4 of the last 11 renewals being abandoned and rescheduled for January due to waterlogging. The wet weather is continuing to come down 7 days before the race and although I don’t think there’s a worry with an abandonment this year, it will still be fairly testing.
The race is quite unique with its range of winners in recent years. 7 years ago, we saw a 13-year-old (quite amazingly ridden by a 16-year-old) winner whilst only last year saw a 6-year-old winner. During those 5 years, we had winners at 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10. Last year’s winner Nassalam absolutely hacked up by 34 lengths in the pouring rain despite lugging round 11st 3. The 4 previous winners before that came from the bottom end of the weights, suggesting that carrying weight around here is as tough as it gets.
Only 3 horses have managed to win the race carrying more than 11st, but amazingly these 3 have been 6-year-olds (Native River 11-12, Elegant Escape 11-8 & Nassalam last year). These 3 have gone on to run in the Gold Cup (with Native River winning one) which implies it needs a good one to carry the weight in this. For that reason, if you think there’s not a Gold Cup horse in the race, then look towards the bottom of the weights.
Favourites have a good record in the race with 5 of the last 9 years winners coming from the head of the market. Last year’s winner Nassalam currently sits towards the top of the market and is a general 8/1 shot. Having been pulled up on both his starts this season, the aim has been clear, get him as far back down the handicap as possible. This would have been the plan but I believe he will be giving this a swerve and waiting for other targets. The top of the market is congested, and I think 1 of 4 horses could go off fav here.
The shape of the race has changed over the last 2 weeks with many at the top of the betting and weights coming out at the latest forfeit stage – Kandoo Kid, Coko Beach, Delta Work and Threeunderthrufive along with London National winner, Mr Vango, all won’t be lining up come the off (Mr Vango is still currently in the race but has been ruled out so will come out at the 5-day stage).
Welsh Grand National 2024 Tips
My 2 fancies from a long-range view of the race, Mr Vango & Marsh Wren, have (or will) come out so it was very much back to the drawing board for me after the latest declaration stage.
At this stage, I want a horse that I believe will run and that has me pointing to the Galia Des Liteaux camp.
A best-priced 12/1 offers good value for the field that we now have. Last seen finishing 7th in the Coral Gold Cup at the end of November, she comes here with a good prep and I believe this has been her main target for the winter. The mare loves soft ground and ticks boxes I want to see ticked for this. There is forecast rain around this week and even though it seems to dry up leading up to the race, the ground will still ride soft come the day. She’s currently sitting at No.12 in the weights so will carry a minimum of 11st3 which isn’t ideal based on previous trends and comments, however, I don’t think this is a strong renewal and I’m not put off by those trends due to the nature of the horses left in.
The Skelton team are flying and I’ve always believed this horse has a big win in her at some stage and I’d be hopeful that the plan will be mastered at Chepstow.
Welsh Grand National Betting Tip
Bet Galia Des Liteaux 1pt EW – 12/1 Paddy Power
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