Cheltenham Festival 2025 Each-way Handicap Tips – Win upto £60,000 from a £1 EW Lucky 15

The Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us and today we have got an each-way lucky 15 tip from four of the handicap races, courtesy of Ciaran Murphy.

The Changes to the 2025 Festival have added 2 handicaps to the card, which increases our chances of landing that life-changing handicap lucky 15. Last year, we had 2 winners at odds of 8/1 (Chianti Classico) and 14/1 (Better Days Ahead) and a 33/1 place (admittedly if backing on the day with Gowel Road).

This year, for your convenience (and by pure chance), my 4 strongest handicap fancies all run on Thursday 13th March. Unlucky for some? Not for you when you land nearly £60,000 from just a £1 EW Lucky 15.

 

Jack Richards Novice Handicap Chase

No trends for this new race, with its previous incarnation being limited to 0-145 rated horses. I think that the current favourite Jagwar is an artificially short price based on his previous run, as the winners of that race on trials day had a good record in that 0-145 novice chase. But the new version of the race is open to a higher class of animal. To put it into perspective Jagwar has a hurdles rating of just 118, with the next 3 in the market having equivalent ratings of 151, 143 and 150 (all Irish marks). Of those 3, the lowest chase mark belongs to NURBURGRING (10/1) at 143. After winning the Galway Hurdle he was given a couple of flat runs, so good ground will certainly be a positive. His subsequent chase starts have been ‘interesting’ with a notable 3rd in a grade 2 contest. He was a fast finishing 4th in a hot Triumph Hurdle last year, indicating that a step up in trip will benefit him. He has been freshened up since an admittedly poor jumping performance at Christmas and an improvement in his jumping along with the application of cash may just see him to best effect for a trainer who is in a rich vein of form. 

The biggest danger may be Asian Master who with his riders claim taken into account, runs here off 137 despite being 4th in what has admittedly turned out to be a poor Supreme Novice Hurdle.

 

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle 

Key Trends

• Seven of the last eight Irish Trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier
• 7 of last 11 winners were trained in Ireland
• 10 of last 11 winners were aged 6-8
• Only two in the last 26 had actually won a qualifier.

When looking for the winner of the Pertemps, history tells us to go to the Leopardstown Qualifier and then disregard the winner. Of the remaining 3 qualifiers that day, only one is likely to get a run here – FEET OF A DANCER (16/1). She has been kept fresh since that performance which is notable when you look at the fact that she has won 3 times off breaks of 100+ days. (admittedly only 75 days since last run here). Before her qualifier, she had been kept to listed mares races, both of which she placed in. She was given just a 2-pound rise for her qualification and a subsequent 4-pound rise by the UK handicapper is in line with what you would expect. She will appreciate the sounder surface and her case is strengthened by trainer Paul Nolan’s proven record to win the race with Mrs Milner, who was a 134-rated 6-year-old mare when she won this race at 16/1 in 2021….sound familiar?

 

TrustATrader Plate Handicap 

Key Trends

• Last 6 winners had a Course win that season
• Last 3 winners have been aged 10+
• The last nine winners had previously contested a Grade 1 Nov Chase or Hurdle

There are several 2-and-a-half mile handicap chases run at Cheltenham every year and as such, this race seems to favour course specialists. As the stats point out, previous course and distance form is a must. Additionally, while there is an accepted wisdom that festival glory is a young Irish horse’s game, the last 3 winners of this race have been double digits in age, with 2 of them trained in England. This is not a surprise when we look at some of the generous drops that have been dished out by the English handicapper. 

In this case, the selection FUGITIF (20/1) who contested the Ryanair Grade 1 Chase last year has been dropped 6 pounds for a 3rd and 5th place in 2 course and distance handicap chases. Now rated 148, this is 3 pounds less than when winning last year….yes you guessed it…..over course and distance. So while he hasn’t won at the course this year (like the last 6 winners) he gets a silver medal in this category. At 10 I don’t think his best days are behind him and I give him a huge chance here.

Crebilly is the main danger and is another who is the beneficiary of generous handicapping (running here off 2 pounds lower then when second last year) but the relative price disparity here (12 points) is too big for me. Honourable mention to another course and distance English trained specialist Il Ridoto at 33/1, who has actually won at the course this year and may again benefit from Freddie Gingell’s 3 pound claim.

 

Kim Muir Handicap Chase

Key Trends

• Favourites Have won or came 2nd in each of the last 4 years
• 8 of the last 10 winners have gone off less than 10/1
• In the last 2 years, Irish trained runners have filled 11 of the first 12 places
• The last 6 winners have been Novices

When looking at putting together a handicap lucky 15 for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, you don’t automatically start looking at favourites. Still, as pointed out in the stats above, favourites have a great record in the Kim Muir. In addition, if you are an Irish trained novice, you are hitting some key trends (although that is perhaps not a surprise given the success of the Irish in recent years). This market also has the potential to cut up with a couple of those towards the top unlikely runners. MIDNIGHT OUR FRED (10/1) is not the current favourite across the board but is heading that direction with a couple of high profile tipsters (Gavin Lynch included) putting him up. 

I believe his second in the Paddy Power chase at Christmas is the standout piece of form on offer with winner and Leopardstown specialist Percival Legallois following up with a hurdle win at the DRF, Galway Plate winner Pinkerton in 3rd and subsequent Thyestes and Bobbyjo chase winner Nick Rockett 9 lengths back in 4th.

 Three of Midnight Our Fred’s previous five runs have been at Cheltenham, which is strange for a small Irish trainer (JP Flavin). More impressively, he came second in each one, demonstrating a clear affinity for the track. He was also raised just a pound to 132 from his Irish mark and so will be carrying just 11st 1.

Long-range weather forecasts would indicate we will be racing on a sound surface which is important with 5 of his last 6 runs coming on ground with “good” in the going. Sa Majeste is respected for powerful connections (JP, Willie and most probably Derek O’Connor) but there is a chance that he is priced on reputation rather than form and I am happy to take a chance here at 10/1 antepost with this almost certainly the target.

 

Cheltenham Handicap Lucky 15 Each-way Tips

2pm – Jack Richards Novice Handicap Chase: NURBURGRING (10/1)

2.40pm – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle: FEET OF A DANCER (16/1)

4.40pm – TrustATrader Plate Handicap: FUGITIF (20/1)

5.20pm – Kim Muir Handicap Chase: MIDNIGHT OUR FRED (10/1)

 

Cheltenham Lucky 15 Odds

Fourfold Pays 43196/1 with Bet365 on Antepost Terms (22,949/1 NRNB).

£1 Each Way Lucky 15 Pays £57,521.20.

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