Breeders Cup 2023 Day 1 Tips for a Lucky 15
9:00 Santa Anita
The first race we look at is the Group 1 Juveniles Turf Sprint for the 2-year-old sprinters over 5 furlongs.
I like CRIMSON ADVOCATE (4/1) in this. A winner of the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, she flew out the gates and lead from start to finish that day. That victory stands up well with several strong form boots throughout the season and the return to America has to be a positive. She shown he was all speed at Ascot holding on close to home on that stuff 5f track. This track is a lot more speed favouring and has to be a positive. She has the inside draw of stall 1 and she should have no problems bagging the rail given how quickly she can get out the gates. She has been kept fresh for this since her Queen Mary victory and I’d be hopeful it was with this contest in mind.
10:20 Santa Anita
The 10:20 race is the Group 1 Juveniles Fillies Turf, a race for the 2-year-old fillies over the mile.
Carla’s Way is a solid filly and she won well last time out despite getting the run of the race. Porta Fortuna is another solid yardstick but this step up to a mile is a niggling concern. I’m happy to take them two on as I don’t think they are the strongest 2-year-old fillies over this side of the water and I’ll take them on with SHE FEELS PRETTY (13/2). She has shown plenty of natural speed to win on debut over 5f before being pitched into a Group 1 on her second career over this mile trip. She bolted up that day winning eased down by over 4 lengths and seemed to relish the extra distance. The fact she’s won over 5f suggests she’ll be able to get a nice position despite being in stall 11 and with further improvement likely on just her third career start, she’ll do for me here.
11:00 Santa Anita
The 11:00 is the Juvenile Throughbred Aftercare Alliance. It is a Grade 1 for the 2-year-olds on the dirt over the extended mile.
Truth be told, American dirt races aren’t a strong point but I do think MUTH (7/2) is the one to beat in this race. Trainer Bob Baffert likes to target one of his best juveniles here and he has a fine record on this contest winning it twice over the last six years. Again, he has shown plenty of speed to win over 5f on debut so despite stall 10, I’d be hopeful he’ll get near the front which can be important in the dirt races. He stepped up to a mile on his third start after a second place and again, he relished it winning by 4 lengths. That was a Group 1 over this course and distance which has to be a huge positive in a race of this nature. He should be favourite in my opinion.
11:40 Santa Anita
The final on Day 1 is the Grade 1 Juvenile Turf over the mile for the 2-year-old colts and geldings.
It’s RIVER TIBER (9/4) NAP here for me. Aiden O’Brien has a string of top notch two year-olds this season and the fact River Tiber is his number one for this with Ryan Moore jocked up has to be a great starting point. A winner on his first three career starts which finished with a Group 1 victory in the Coventry Stakes over 6f, he has since finished third in two really deep Group 1’s since. The third behind Van Deek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes last time out is a strong piece of form and he didn’t have the ideal preparation that day so that form can be marked up. The step up to a mile looks a positive move and he has the ideal draw in stall 2. Tough to beat.
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