Cheltenham Betting Tips and Preview for Friday 15th November

It’s not the busiest of cards at Cheltenham on Friday and there are some trappy betting heats to try and work out for our betting tips and preview.

With 6 races, 2 of which have no EW terms and 1 with only 2 places, betting is on the light side compared to usual articles. But here are my thoughts on some of the races below.

 

13.45

A disappointing field of 4 goes to post but I think it’s a race that looks more competitive than the market suggests. Springwell Bay sets the standard and sits at the top of the market following his win on his chase debut at Chepstow last month. That form has been boosted with the 3^rd from that race, Boombawn, winning the rising stars novices at Wincanton last week.

I am happy to take him on here though. A previous course winner at 2m5f, I think the 3m trip will really push the stamina of the Jonjo O’Neill horse and I need to be convinced of this distance at this trip before I can take a short price on him.

Preference is for BUDDY ONE who has strong 3m form at Cheltenham over hurdles. Chasing is a different game though and would need to have improved on his jumping from his previous 2 chase starts if he is to be successful here. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt based on his 3m form and the fact he is getting weight from those market principles.

Back Buddy One win only 7/2 (Bet365)

 

14.20

Jonbon should take care of these inferior rivals and win back-to-back renewals of this race. I think the fact he isn’t at his best at Cheltenham (and fluffed his lines in the Clarence House in January) makes him a slightly bigger price than what he should be here. It would be great if Edwardstone is back to somewhat like his best so he can give him a race but I can’t see anything bar a Jonbon win so it’s a watching brief here with no bet.

 

14.55

My fancy for the race in the week was Stumptown but with him not being declared, it’s difficult to see an angle into the race. Conflated running and shouldering top weight means that many are running here out of the handicap. With the race in March now a handicap, you are taking a punt on horses either being ready for this or playing the long game until the 2025 Cheltenham Festival in regards to their mark. BUSSELTON is an interesting participant as he will be testing himself over the banks for the first time, but it is merely that, interest.

It’s a fun race to watch and enjoy but not a betting proposition for me, if you do want a bet the Bussleton is 7/1 with William Hill.

 

15.30

A field of 6 goes to post, although the betting suggests it’s only a 2-horse race. Two winners from the October meeting battle out this 2m5f contest and I believe the winner will come from which one of these two prefers the trip.

VALGRAND is stepping up 4½ furlongs from his win last time out and also has to give 2lb to Potters Charm, who is also stepping up in trip from his success here last month. Both horses won well but Valgrand was the talking horse following his 17-length demolition of Gale Mahler. Trainer Dan Skelton seemed surprised by the manor of victory and tested him further here to see if that was a 1 off or if we have a serious horse. Potters Charm will be hard to beat and even though he has to give weight away and prove more at the trip, I am siding with the Skelton horse here. Many firms are currently odds on about Potters Charm so I’m willing to back the outsider of the 2 and hope Valgrand’s show in October wasn’t a fluke.

Back Valgrand win only 6/4 (Bet365)

 

16.00

I’ve followed Harry Derham closely so far in the early stages of this season and it’s his charge that I fancy here. His strike rate in handicaps has been talked about in a number of places over the last few weeks and I’m hoping for another success in the last.

BALHAMBAR is the horse to back and even though the early showing of 8/1 in places has long gone, I’m happy to take the current prices still. He has form in the book behind the hugely impressive Swinton winner Pickanumber and if this horse improves as much as him, then his mark of 117 will be long gone come Friday tea time. Harry Derham has opted for cheekpieces (1^st time for him but wore them previously elsewhere) and a tongue tie and I’m reading that as a positive, especially as he has a strong record when turning to headgear with his horses.

Like Slugger at Carlise a couple of weekends ago, I expect this horse to shorten further and justify that money by winning.

Back Balhambar win only 9/2 (Bet365)

 

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