Cheltenham Day 3 Tips – Thursday’s Race by Race Predictions and Betting Tips
We move onto our 2025 Cheltenham Festival day 3 tips and Ciaran is back with a preview of each race and the best win and each-way bets across the seven race card.
Once again the action gets underway at 1.20pm and the feature race of the day is the Stayers Hurdle at 4pm. See our day 3 predictions below and the best bets on the Thursday card.
Cheltenham Day 3 Tips
- 1.20pm – Galileo Dame (11/2 with bet365) & Aurora Vega EW (8/1 with bet365)
- 2.00pm – Nurburgring (13/2 with 888Sport)
- 2.40pm – Feet of a Dancer EW (10/1 with BetVictor) & D Art D Art EW (12/1 with Coral)
- 3.20pm – Il Est Francais (10/3 with BetVictor) & Jungle Boogie EW (12/1 with William Hill)
- 4.00pm – The Wallpark EW (7/1 with Ladbrokes)
- 4.40pm – Gemirande EW (12/1 with William Hill)
- 5.20pm –Midnight Our Fred (8/1 with bet365)
1.20pm – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle)
The new schedule for Thursday sees us kick off with the Mares Novice Hurdle. I am against the head of the market here. In an each-way lucky 15 posted a few weeks back, I made the case for Karoline Banbou but a closer look at her form shows a possible preference for a softer surface. I was against Maughreen even before the jockey bookings were announced and it must be significant that Paul Townend has chosen AURORA VEGA, who was expensive to follow as a bumper horse but was actually beaten by some smart rivals. She was clinically abnormal after her 1/10 defeat at Wexford but has followed up with 2 wins since. She will improve for better ground and I think that Willies decision to run here (he initially indicated she would skip this and go to fairy house) is another positive. Available at 10/1 (5 places) with Coral, she is certainly worth a bet.
But the main selection is Joseph O’Briens GALILEO DAME (11/2) who, as a 4 year old, gets 10 pounds off her rivals here. Her form is rock solid with her Grade 1 2nd at the DRF arguably the strongest single piece of form on offer in the race. The trainer has already got off the board on Day 1 and I really like her chances of adding to the tally.
WIN – Galileo Dame (11/2 with bet365)
EACH-WAY – Aurora Vega (8/1 with bet365)
2.00pm – Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2)
While this is a return of sorts for the Novice Handicap Chase, its previous incarnation was limited to 0-145 rated horses. The new version is open to classier types and NURBURGRING (13/2) certainly fits the bill. After winning the Galway Hurdle he was given a Hurdles mark of 150 (Irish). He was then given a couple of flat runs, so good ground will certainly be a positive. His subsequent chase starts have been ‘interesting’ with a notable 3rd in a grade 2 contest and arrives here off a mark of just 143. He was a fast finishing 4th in a hot Triumph Hurdle last year, indicating that a step up in trip will benefit him. He has been freshened up since an admittedly poor jumping performance at Christmas and an improvement in his jumping along with the application of cash may just see him to best effect and add to Joseph O’Briens tally.
WIN – Nurburgring (13/2 with 888Sport)
2.40pm – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
When looking for the winner of the Pertemps, history tells us to go to the Christmas Leopardstown qualifier and then disregard the winner. Of the remaining 3 qualifiers that day, only one runs here – FEET OF A DANCER (16/1). She has been kept fresh since that performance which is notable when you look at the fact that she has won 3 times off breaks of 100+ days (admittedly only 75 days since last run here). Prior to her qualifier, she had been kept to listed mares races, both of which she placed in. She was given just a 2 pound rise for her qualification and a subsequent 4 pound rise by the UK handicapper is in line with what you would expect. She will appreciate the sounder surface and her case is strengthened by trainer Paul Nolan’s proven record to win the race with Mrs Milner, who was a 134 rated 6 year old mare when she won this race at 16/1 in 2021….sound familiar?
I would also give a strong chance to another Irish raider from a small stable, Thomas Cooper’s D ART D ART (12/1). I believe the key to this horse is the ground for a trainer who has a 33% place record when sending horses to the festival. He should have won his qualifier but for tiring on soft ground and 3rd that day was subsequent grade 2 scorer Gwinnie May Boy. The clinching factor was the booking of 5 pound claimed Tiernan Power Roche who is an excellent rider (watch out for his mount in the Martin Pipe)
EACH-WAY – Feet of a Dancer (10/1 with BetVictor)
EACH-WAY – D Art D Art (12/1 with Coral)
3.20pm – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1)
Fact to File has long been at the head of the market but this race is a clear afterthought for a horse who started the year as the young pretender to King Galopin’s crown and I severely dislike the idea of backing a horse at 6/4 who is only running here because he wasn’t good enough for his original target. While losing to Galopin Des Champs is clearly no disgrace, doing likewise to Grangeclare West is a more severe crime and one that I can’t forgive here given that horses deplorable run at Navan last time out.
This is surely the ideal trip for IL EST FRANCAIS (10/3) and while there is a suggestion that the undulating track of Cheltenham won’t suit, there is no evidence back this theory up. While it looked like he fell in a hole at the end of the King George, that data actually points out that he wasn’t slowing drastically…Banbridge was just closing relentlessly and the French raider maintained the gap to the rest of the field. His jumping will put every horse in the race to the pin of their collar and while I am not comparing him to Allaho, there is a very clear template for this bold front-running style winning the race.
I must also give a favourable mention to JUNGLE BOOGIE (14/1). He was travelling as well as any before not staying in the Gold Cup last year and absolutely bolted up last time out at Ascot. His age is a negative for sure but he he is very lightly raced, having just his eigth start under rules. Oh, and by the way he has won 5 of his previous 7 starts.
WIN – Il Est Francais (10/3 with BetVictor)
EACH-WAY – Jungle Boogie (12/1 with William Hill)
4.00pm – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Teahupoo was my nap of the Festival last year and duly obliged at 3/1, however, there is no room for sentiment in this game and I am not keen to back him this year at half the price. I don’t think the ground is as big an issue as some but I wasn’t in love with his run in the Hatton’s Grace and the disadvantage of a sparing campaign is that he comes here straight, off the back of that defeat.
However, Gordon Elliot may still have the winner. THE WALLPARK (8/1) was extremely impressive in his course and distance Pertemps qualification, giving 4 pounds and a beating to Gowel Road. Subsequently bought by JP (who is not in the process of buying duds), his latest effort at Ascot and the subsequent form of that race is certainly a worry. Perhaps he didn’t like the track or the ground, but neither will be an issue here and even on that day, he was closing all the way to the line. The Wallpark, as a rapidly improving handicap hurdler, has a similar profile to Sire Du Berlais and in a pretty weak race, I would give him a strong each-way chance.
EACH-WAY – The Wallpark (7/1 with Ladbrokes)
4.40pm – TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
The type of race that suits course and distance specialists and there are plenty to choose from there (Fugitif, Ginnys Destiny, Il Ridoto not to mention the previous 2 winners of the race). Cases can be made for most of the field in what is arguably the most competitive handicap of the week. The trends say you need a horse who has had multiple runs over course and distance, races prominently and also has a C&D win that season. That points to GEMIRANDE (12/1) who runs here off a 6-pound higher mark from that December win and also has form on good ground for a stable who have won this race 3 times.
EACH-WAY – Gemirande (12/1 with William Hill)
5.20pm – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase
In the last 2 years, Irish-trained runners have filled 11 of the first 12 places and the last 6 winners have been Novices. So it makes sense to select an Irish-trained Novice here. MIDNIGHT OUR FRED (10/1) has arguably the best piece of form in this year’s race, with his second in the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas. The winner was Leopardstown specialist Percival Legallois who followed up with a hurdle win at the DRF, Galway Plate winner Pinkerton was in 3rd and subsequent Thyestes and Bobbyjo chase winner Nick Rockett was 9 lengths back in 4th.
3 of Midnight Our Fred’s previous 5 runs had been at Cheltenham which is strange for small Irish trainer (JP Flavin), and more impressively, he came second in each one, demonstrating a clear affinity for the track. He was also raised just a pound to 132 from his Irish mark and so will be carrying just 11st 2. The ground is also in his favour, with 5 of his last 6 runs coming on ground with “good” in the going.
WIN – Midnight Our Fred (8/1 with bet365)
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