Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips 2024 – Predicting the 1-2-3 in the 2024 Gold Cup at Cheltenham

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is not only the highlight of the Cheltenham Festival but, for many people, the highlight of the entire National Hunt season and our tipster Adam O’Brien has picked his betting tips for the big race.

The Roll of Honour reads like a ‘Who’s Who’ of staying steeplechasers down the years and includes such luminaries of the sport as Golden Miller,  Cottage Rake, Arkle, Best Mate and Kauto Star, to name but a handful.

As the 2024 Festival gets ever closer we will have day by day Cheltenham tips and the big event of the week, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, takes place at 3.30pm on day 4, which is Friday 15th March this year.

 

2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips

The main event. The Gold Cup. The Blue Riband of our sport. The best-staying chasers take each other on over 3m2f and 22 fences with a punishing finish up that famous Cheltenham hill.

The race has thrown up many a star over the years and this year’s renewal sees last year’s winner Galopin Des Champs come into it as an Even money chance to repeat that success. His performance here 12 months ago was so impressive as he stormed up the hill despite not having the greatest round of jumping or the most fluent of journies around. He’s the most likely winner and his odds tell us just how obvious his chance is. Winning 2 Gold Cups is no mean feat and if he does do what I expect him to do here then we really can start talking about him as a real superstar. His performances at Xmas and the DRF have us comparing him to Kauto Star and obviously, that ability and form is way ahead of anything else in the race. I think he wins, and the rest are playing for places.

Even though Galopin is the standout horse, there is still quality in behind him and if he is to have an off day then there are a good few who will fancy their chances.

Fastorslow is 2nd in the market and justifies that position due to beating Galopin Des Champs at Punchestown at the end of last season over 3m. He then followed that up by beating him on seasonal reappearance in the John Durkan over the shorter 2m3f trip. He was subsequently put in his place by him at the DRF though and would need to improve again to turn the tables on him and beat him for a 3rd time. Fastorslow does have a good mix of speed and stamina and could be tailor-made for a Gold Cup. He has been to the Festival twice before and shown a liking to the course having only been beaten a short head in the Coral Cup in 2022 and a neck in the hot Ultima of last year where he was beaten by Grand National winner Corach Rambler (more on him later). He still has lots to find based on two previous 2nds in handicaps at the festival but if he were to replicate his Punchestown wins over the favourite then he’s a big player.

I think Shishkin is the fly in the ointment due to his unbelievable ability he has shown on the track over the last 4/5 years. His ceiling and highest level of performance could easily see him winning a Gold Cup but there is no guarantee he shows that here. His slight inconsistency and ability to throw in a huge error at the worst possible time makes him difficult to be bullish about and now that he has added in refusing to start to his CV (on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot) then it’s a quirk that’s hard to trust. That refusal came with cheekpieces on though and I’m willing to forget that, especially with how well he ran in the King George before buckling on landing 2 out when looking the most likely winner. It might be the case at 10 years old that his time has gone and he’s too late to the party but I know on his day he can be special and if anyone is going to upset the favourite then it’s going to need a special performance from someone. Even though he’s won a Supreme and an Arkle, he has pulled up in a Champion Chase and lacked fluency in last year’s Ryanair so it’s difficult to really know what he makes of the track. I would be surprised if the cheekpieces returned or if they didn’t ride him prominently so if he gets away first time and holds a good position early on then he has every chance.

Gerri Colombe comes here off the back of being hammered 23 lengths by Galopin Des Champs at Xmas and has a lot to find on that based off that run. As mentioned above, it was a scintillating performance from Galopin Des Champs and Gerri Colombe couldn’t lay a glove on that despite the ground being in his favour. He was sent off close in the market that day (6/4f played 7/4) but the performance and winning margin was anything but close. His only visit to Cheltenham saw him defeated by a short head in last seasons Brown Advisory to The Real Whacker when sent off the 5/4 fav. Not given the best of rides by Jordon Gainford, he stayed on strongly at the end and made up ample ground after being outpaced. He flew up the hill and showed an eagerness to battle which can be a great tool for a stamina-sapping Gold Cup. He showed that same attitude on season reappearance in November when getting up to beat Envoi Allen by a short head in the Down Royal Champion Chase. The Gold Cup could be made for someone like Gerri Colombe and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was to win this but I have a concern, that if the ground is on the good side, he will be outpaced and lose his position at a crucial time and that might be enough to end his chance.

Not often you can get 20/1 on a King George winner less than 2 weeks before the Gold Cup but that’s what we can get with Hewick. He is a horse whereby his chances improve with good ground. The better the ground the better his chances. He is a proper staying chaser that (Like Gerri) can often get outpaced but is seen doing his best work at the end of his races. He is a Bet365 Gold Cup winner over 3m5f and came from the clouds in his King George success on Boxing Day. He fell 2 out in last years race where he would have probably finished 3rd/4th and if he gets round here then he can give the front end of the market a proper freight.

Gentlemansgame comes here with a strange profile with only 3 career chase starts to his name as an 8 year old. Hes not been the easiest to stay right and has had long layoffs throughout his career (244 days off twice and a further 276 days once) but he has always been highly regarded by connections. His 2 chase starts this season have seen him get the better of last year’s 2nd place Bravesmangame in the Charlie Hall and finishing ahead of Envoi Allen on his seasonal debut at Gowran Park at the end of September. Off the track since the start of November, he will come into this race as the freshest horse. We wont know whether that’s a positive or not until the day or whether he will take to the track as a Cheltenham newbie.

Corach Rambler has won at the Festival for the last 2 years but faces a huge step up in class if he is going to do a festival hat trick in this. Back-to-back Ultima chases followed by taking the 2023 Grand National has meant he has become somewhat of a public horse and I feel he won’t be without fans again this year. Those wins have shown us that he has endless amounts of stamina and loves Cheltenham and they are 2 good boxes to tick. Whether he’s good enough in a Gold Cup is up for debate. He may just be a very good handicapper. He hasn’t shown any form so far this season but that’s no reason to worry. He ran poorly on the exact same weekends in October and November last season before peaking in the spring and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was to come alive again once the sun starts shining. He may not have the class of the top ones here but he cannot be dismissed in the place markets.

 

Predicting the Cheltenham Gold Cup 1-2-3

Its difficult to see past Galopin Des Champs and I believe he will win back-to-back Gold Cups by winning here. A competitive race behind him will hopefully develop and am backing Shishkin and Corach Rambler in follow him home and pick up the pieces.

1. Galopin Des Champs

2. Shishkin

3. Corach Rambler

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting Tips 

Back Shishkin 1 pt win W/O Galopin Des Champs at 3/1 (William Hill NRNB)

Back Corach Rambler 1 pt EW at 20/1 (William Hill NRNB)

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

• Age – 11 of last 12 winners were aged between 7-9
• Price – 5 of last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 7/12 winners were top 3 in the betting
• Last Run – 9 of last 12 winners won on their previous run before the Cheltenham Gold Cup, 11/12 winners had their last run within the last 80 days, 12/12 winners had their last run 33 days or longer ago
• 3/12 winners ran in the Irish Gold Cup (Leopardstown) on their last run, 1 of the 3 won, 0 placed
• 2/12 winners ran in the Denman Chase (Newbury) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won
• 2/12 winners ran in the Savills Chase (Leopardstown) on their last run, 1 of the 2 won, 1 placed
• Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous Cheltenham run, 6/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
• Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs over 24 furlongs or further, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 24 furlongs or further, 8/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 24 furlongs or further
• Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 10/12 had at least 2 wins over hurdles
• Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 previous chase runs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous chase wins, 11/12 had at least 3 previous chase wins
• Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 164 or higher, 5/12 were rated 170 or higher
• Grade 1 Wins – 12/12 winners had won at least 1 Grade 1 race, 7/12 had won at least 2
• Grade 2 Wins – 9/12 winners had won at least 1 Grade 2 race, 5/12 had won at least 2
• Grade 3 Wins – 8/12 winners had won at least 1 Grade 3 race
• Season Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 11/12 had at least 1 win that season