Cheltenham Festival 2023 Ante-Post Diary Part 1: Arkle, Ballymore and Mares Chase Ante-post Tips

Cheltenham. The greatest 4 days in the jumps calendar. It seems to get talked about earlier and earlier each year. It’s a bug we cannot shake. I’m honest enough to admit that Cheltenham is rarely out of my thoughts. The Cheltenham obsession is real. The summer has been and gone and now it’s time to really crank up the national hunt chat. It’s time to talk about Cheltenham.

I believe the hype and obsession with Cheltenham has added to the difficulties in ante-post betting on the Cheltenham Festival. The content out there is only growing, the questions are becoming more regular and the targets are being thought of more often.

As a result, it seems that bookies cant act quick enough when it comes to shortening prices. When a horse wins a race, they get shortened. When a horse is put up by a respected social media platform, they get shortened. When a trainer suggests a target, they get shortened.

Looking at the festival in October is never easy but finding value and tipping is as difficult as I’ve ever known. I’ll be writing regularly throughout the season and giving my thoughts on horses that I think are standing out and worth backing.

I’ve put up a few horses below that I think offer good value at this moment in time. Added to that are some of the horses I’ve backed already (from March/April) and ones I believe have a good chance of not only making their races, but winning.

 

Dysart Dynamo – Arkle 20/1 (bet365)

Bet 365 are a stand-out 20/1 and I’m willing to take that price and hope that a fence will bring out the best in Dysart Dynamo. Sent off the 9/4 joint fav for last season’s Supreme Novices hurdle after a few impressive hurdling and bumper starts, he fell 3 out just before any serious buttons were asked to be pushed. He would have only been playing for 2^nd place behind a super impressive Constitution Hill but there would have been no shame in finishing 2^nd to that.

He was a disappointing 5^th of 5 in his next start at Punchestown and it’s that poor run that makes him a big price now. I’m willing to forget that run though as he came back clinically abnormal post-race.

There’s no doubt the horse is hugely talented. He has his quirks and as a result, he has his critics but I believe a fence will do to Dysart Dynamo, what it did to Un De Sceaux. The free-running type makes him a perfect Arkle horse and I can’t see him being aimed at anything other than 2m this season. Willie has many novice chasers and it will be the case of more than 1 in each race so I’m adamant he will be an Arkle horse come March. Take the 20s now.

 

James Gate –  Ballymore 14/1 (bet365)

It’s hard enough playing Willie Mullins bingo the week before Cheltenham let alone 5 months before but here I am…..

Willie has a number of top-class novice hurdlers at his disposal (Facile Vega, Redemption Day, Gaelic Warrior, Mercurey to name a few) and just getting a run for your money is a challenge but I’m happy to commit to James Gate being a Ballymore horse due to his connections. His owners sponsor the race and all previous horses in those colours have run in this race (Whatduewant ran in it last season for the same connections) with City Island winning the race in 2019.

Like Dysart Dynamo, we are getting a bigger price than maybe we should be due to his last start. Beaten 13 lengths into 4^th when sent of 4/9 fav at Punchestown doesn’t read too well but I often take Punchestown form with a pinch of salt. I would rather look at his 3^rd in the Champion Bumper behind 2 highly regarded horses as where I think he is.

I’m hoping that James Gate takes to hurdles and that his stable mate Facile Vega is a supreme horse. I think James Gate will be suited for a step-up in trip and I’m keeping him on-side.  There’s going to be a whole heap of decent novice hurdlers this season but I believe James Gate will earn his right to be at the top table fighting with all those good horses.

 

Riviere D’etel – Mares Chase 10/1 (Paddy Power)

Sent off the 7/2 2^nd favourite in last season’s Arkle, Riviere D’etel was a well-beaten 5^th of 8 finishers. She was never going to get near Galopin Des Champs over 2m4f at Fairyhouse after that but she didn’t disgrace herself at all.

I believe her form tailed off in the spring due to being kept on the go throughout the season and Gordon taking advantage of her mares/age allowance as much as possible in the early part.

She had good form up against Blue Lord and Ferny Hollow at Xmas and the DRF and that would have given her huge experience going into this season. Gordon has said that she will be aimed more at mares races this season and that will coincide with a tilt at this. I  don’t think she will run as much as she did last season and she will enter the spring a lot fresher than she did this year.

Allegorie De Vassy is a terrible price (5/1) fav for this. She hasn’t jumped a fence in public yet and has been out injured since January. She may be very good but I’m willing to take her on at this stage and back the mare with the experience. 10/1 seems like value to me at this stage. If she gets here on the day, she won’t be a patch of that price.

 

Previously Backed

GDM – National Hunt Chase 9/2 (Backed at 16/1)

The worse kept secret during the spring/summer was that Gaillard Du Mesnil is the National Hunt Chase winner. All the ‘shrewd’ folk were on after he finished 3^rd in the Irish National which kept his novice status for another year, making him a perfect candidate for the NHC. He’s been backed in recent days to a pretty short price and I’m delighted to have got on when I did. He ticks all the boxes needed for the race and will almost certainly be ridden by Patrick if he turns up.

Last year’s contest only brought 6 horses to post (4 Irish & 2 Rebecca Curtis runners) and I envisage another small field again come March. He seems a short price now but will definitely be shorter on the day. I think the NHC is a good betting race as not every trainer/owner likes to target the race so it is one of the easier races to spot who might be aimed at it a long way out.

 

Mighty Potter –  Arkle 12/1 (backed at 33/1)

Even though I’m happy to tip and back Dysart Dynamo for the Arkle now I’m aware of the danger Mighty Potter can cause. After disappointing at Cheltenham after not going a yard, he bounced back to win the Grade 1 at Punchestown and in doing so gave a hammering to Ballymore winner Sir Gerhard.

A proper chaser in the making, Gordon has mentioned a number of times how he cannot wait to send Mighty Potter over fences. There is always a worry about what distance these horses will end up at or be targeted at Cheltenham but I believe he will be campaigned over 2m and end up in the Arkle at Cheltenham. The Arkle could be cracker of a race if Dysart Dynamo and current favourite Jonbon turn up but I’m happy to be holding a nice docket on this fella.

 

Redemption Day – Ballymore 14/1 (backed at 33/1)

Backed at a price I thought was too good to not have a small stab at. I think Redemption Day will be kept apart from Facile Vega throughout the season and at Cheltenham and it’s my opinion that Facile Vega will go to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle which would leave Redemption Day possibly joining stable mate James Gate here. Not a huge fancy at this stage as plenty of water to go under the bridge in this division but he is definitely one to keep on side

 

Vauban – Champion Hurdle 8/1 (backed 16/1)

I backed Vauban for the Champion Hurdle before this year’s Cheltenham in anticipation that he would be a good thing and win the Triumph. We should always be cautious with Juveniles leaving their own age group and going into open company for the first time but I think this horse is very good. He improved throughout last season and has every right to be near the top of the market here. In another year he might be fav at this point but he will have the difficult task of knocking Honeysuckle off her perch whilst also looking out for the absolute tool that is Constitution Hill. It could be a very tough division to call if all hold/progress their form that they have shown in their careers so far but Vauban is one that excites me and I’m looking forward to further improvement this season.

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