Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips 2023 – Predicting the 1-2-3 in Friday’s Big Race

The blue riband/ribboned (🤷🏼‍♂️) race of the week (and the year) the 2023 Cheltenham Festival comes at 3.30pm on Friday 17th March, aka St Patrick’s Day.

And given that Ireland have provided 7 out of the last 10 winners (including the last 4), it is not surprising that the Irish have the main market principles in the race again. This includes favourite Galopin Des Champs who is likely to go off the shortest price fav since Kuato Star in 2009. Flawless in his Novice Chasing season (bar one high profile but equally minor error), his jumping in his Beginners Chase was breathtaking, earning him the highest-ever RPR for a beginner chaser.

 

Galopin Des Champs a Short Priced Gold Cup Favourite

After Cheltenham, despite falling, timeform gave Galopin Des Champs the second-highest ever rating for a Novice Chaser, only behind Douvan and level with Altior and Sprinter Sacre. 

While he came into the season with stamina questions to answer, his victory in the Irish Gold Cup, albeit over 2 furlongs shorter than its Cheltenham equivalent, and the way he ran through the line left no doubt in my mind that he will stay the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip. Those pointing to Stattler as a horse who could turn the form around over the longer trip were clearly watching a different race to me, where Galopin Des Champs opened up 8 lengths on him between the last fence and the line.

I think that in time, we will be speaking about this horse as one of the greats and I can’t see past him when trying to predict the winner of the 2023 Cheltenham Gold Cup. 

 

A Plus Tard, Bravemansgame & Ahoy Senor Won’t be Winning

Of his market rivals, defending champion A Plus Tard demands respect but running in this race for the 3rd time is a tough ask and his preparation has been far from ideal. I think that his much-vaunted win in last year’s race was flattering off the back of a slowly run race, something which Ahoy Senor will not allow this time around. That horse, while undoubtedly talented, does not jump well enough to win in my opinion.

The opposite can be said of Bravemansgame, who is probably the best jumper of all the 2023 Gold Cup runners. He came up in my estimation when staying on strongly to win the King George. Stamina-wise, this is a different story and he was well beaten on his only previous visit to the track. 

 

Predicting the Cheltenham Gold Cup 1-2-3

The places may also be filled by Irish horses. Noble Yeats owes me nothing after tipping him up at 50/1 for the Grand National last year. His trainer is a genius and he showed an impressive turn of foot 2 outings ago in winning the Many Clouds, while his national win showed that stamina would be no concern. Those pointing out concerns about his ability to travel may be sleeping on the fact that the cheekpieces that he wore to Grand National success have been conspicuous by their absence in every race since. If they can help him to stay in touch through the middle part of the race, few will be staying on stronger at the line. 

Finally, I think that Conflated is being slightly overlooked. While a 5 length defeat of Kemboy wouldn’t jump off the page, the form is way above the bare result. He travels supremely and has become a much better jumper in the past couple of years. With the defection of Allaho from the Ryanair which Shishkin is expected to win, many were clamouring for a switch for this horse. Gordon’s insistence that this is the right race for Conflated would give me confidence and horses having their first run in the race have filled 7 of the 12 places in the last 4 runnings of the race. 

If I am correct, that stat will be 10 out of 15 this time next year. 

1 Galopin Des Champs (6/4)

2 Noble Yeats (12/1)

3 Conflated (14/1)

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