Champion Chase 2025 Tips, Predictions, Preview and Odds
One of the most exhilarating races of the Cheltenham Festival is the Queen Mother Champion Chase, where 2-mile chasers going full flight over the fences is a sight not to be missed.
This has been a mixed race for short price favs with the likes of Altior, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded all winning at odds on but we have also seen the likes of Chacun Pour Soi, Douvan and Defi De Seuil recently all beaten at very short odds. This year looks to be a cracker.
2025 Champion Chase Tips
CIARAN – LAY JONBON: Despite being a massive fan of Jonbon as a Novice hurdler, and despite his record (17 wins from 20 starts, 9 grade 1s, never outside the first 2), I just have a feeling he is vulnerable. Even as I write it, it seems bizarre but at odds on, the fact that all 3 of those losses have come at Cheltenham would have to be a worry. But the case to take him on has one major flaw…with who?
I have been in the Gaelic Warrior camp all year and I don’t mind him losing at Leopardstown (a track he clearly dislikes). But the manner of his DRF run was so disappointing that his participation must surely be in doubt. That being said, if the ground is soft and he turned up on the day, I wouldn’t dismiss his chances. I would give Il Est Francais a good chance but I actually think he will end up in the Ryanair (more of that later). Solness has won both Irish trials but was 11th in a Grand Annual off 149.
So there is no obvious alternative. But that being said, at odds on, I’ll take the field and do a rain dance.
Verdict: Lay
ADAM – BACK JONBON: The first thing to look at when deciding if a horse is a back/lay in this format is the opposition and asking yourself, what can beat them? This race is another where there are plenty of doubts over participation and for that reason its difficult to take Jonbon on. Il Est Francais, Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiolo are all more likely to run in the Ryanair whilst Banbridge will likely run in the Gold Cup. That’s 4 of the top 6 in the betting and outside of that, the race lacks quality. Even if those horses do run, I don’t see how they can scare Jonbon over 2 miles at Cheltenham, especially on the back of the seasons they have had.
Jonbon has looked better than ever this season and his record throughout his career speaks for itself. Having only suffered his (3) defeats in his career, at Cheltenham, punters/bookies have every right to believe that he is not at his best at Prestbury Park (which is probably correct) but I wouldn’t worry too much about those defeats. He has won at the course twice before and although they weren’t at the Festival, there is no reason why he cant perform in the big one.
After a couple of years being the bridesmaid at the Festival, I think 2025 is the year for Jonbon and I believe he finally gets the glory he deserves.
Verdict: Back
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Champion Chase 2025 Each-way Tip
I am under no illusion that Jonbon is the best horse in the race and the most likely winner, but with how I think the race is going to be ran, the likely ground conditions and the race potentially cutting up, I think Solness is overpriced and the play here.
Towards the top of the betting, we have Energumene (11 YO and won’t get soft ground), Gaelic Warrior (rumours are he misses the Festival or goes Ryanair) and Il Est Francais (also likely goes to the Ryanair. Add Banbridge (Gold Cup), El Fabiolo (not going) and a whole list of others that are clearly not going, you’ve got a very small field and I think my selection will love that.
Solness isn’t a selection for the trends as he doesn’t tick many of the ‘previous winners’ boxes but that doesn’t stop me believing he can win this contest.
Rarely, a horse is still finding improvement after his 15th chase start but that’s exactly what Solness has done this season in what were his 16th and 17th chase starts. His 16th start saw him win his 1st Grade 1 when he won over Xmas when an unfancied 28/1. That was deemed a shock but he followed up that success by beating the same horses (Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale and Captain Guinness) at the DRF 4 weeks ago. That was a career-best where he made all and took the running to his rivals, hitting a high of 34mph in the process. The beaten jockeys in behind him were criticised for giving him a soft lead but they simply couldn’t lay up with the tactics and speed Danny Mullins & Solness carried out that day.
His form before that doesn’t read the best and includes a 25l defeat to Jonbon in December at Sandown in the Tingle Creek and a disappointing 41l defeat to Unexpected Party when 11th in last year’s Grand Annual. In fact none of his first 15 starts over fences would point to a Queen Mother contender, but we are here for the here and now and a bit of recency bias would tell you he’s improved remarkably since Xmas and isn’t without a chance in this prestigious race. Even though he has had 17 chase starts, he’s still only a 7 YO and that’s why I think he can be open to further improvement.
I don’t expect Jonbon to give Solness the size of lead he got at the DRF, and theres every chance the race could be set up for him to deliver and finally win at the Festival, but a chance is what I’m taking.
Jonbon’s only 3 defeats in his career have come at Cheltenham and if Solness gets into the rhythm he has on his previous 2 starts, there’s a possibility inconsistencies in his jumping creep in and can become vulnerable.
Solness will appreciate the ground on the quicker side and his chances improve if the long-term weather forecast is correct and we have little rain from now until the Festival. If Solness does find Jonbon too good for him, I don’t expect him to be out the top 3 and that’s why I think he’s a great Each Way bet. He’s the only horse I think can topple Jonbon and he is a fantastic bet at its current price.
Back Solness 9/1 EW Bet365.
Champion Chase Trends
- Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 8 and 10
- Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourite, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 7/12 winners won on their previous run before the Queen Mother Champion Chase, 9/12 winners ran within the last 53 days
- 6/12 winners ran in the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) on their last run, 4 of the 6 won, 1 placed
- Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 7/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 8 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 6 wins over 15-17 furlongs
- Previous Chase Form – 12/12 winners had at least 7 previous chase runs, 12/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase wins
- Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 164 or higher
- Grade 1 Wins – 12/12 winners had at least 1 grade 1 win
- Grade 2 Wins – 12/12 winners had at least 1 grade 2 win
- Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
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Champion Chase Preview 2025
The Queen Mother Champion Chase, scheduled for Wednesday, March 12, 2025, at 4:00 PM, is one of the highlights of the Cheltenham Festival. This Grade 1 race over two miles features the top two-mile chasers in the sport.
Current Favorites and Betting Tips:
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Jonbon: Trained by Nicky Henderson, Jonbon is the current favorite for the Champion Chase. He secured a commanding six-and-a-half-length victory over Energumene in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot on January 18, 2025. This performance has solidified his position at the top of the betting markets.
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Gaelic Warrior: Last season’s Arkle Novices’ Chase winner, Gaelic Warrior, is considered a strong contender. Despite a recent defeat, his previous performances indicate significant potential.
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Energumene: A two-time Champion Chase winner, Energumene remains a formidable opponent. However, his recent defeat to Jonbon and the need for specific ground conditions may impact his chances.
Will Jonbon Win the Champion Chase?
Jonbon’s recent performances, including his decisive win over Energumene, make him a strong favorite for the Champion Chase. Trainer Nicky Henderson has expressed confidence in Jonbon’s abilities, and many experts consider him the horse to beat in this year’s race.
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