Ryanair Chase Tips, Trends & Predictions 2024 – Thursday 14th March 2.50pm
Our Cheltenham Festival expert tipsters have been through the 2025 Ryanair Chase, ran on day 3 of the Festival, and picked out his best bet for the race.
Now in its 21st year, the Ryanair Chase still holds its bridesmaid status as a Championship race due to it often being referred to as the race used for the not quite good enough Gold Cup or Champion Chase horses.
Ryanair Chase Tips 2025
CIARAN: Fact to File started the year as the pretender to the throne but King Galopin has dismissed him to the Ryanair. It does look likely that he will end up here but I think that people are in a hurry to anoint him the champ again.
He was good last year but let’s have another look at last year’s form. Monty’s Star and Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown. Hardly inspiring. Admittedly his win in the John Durcan is impressive but I don’t think it’s the best piece of form in the race. Stop the race at 2m 5f in the King George and your Ryanair winner is in front. I hope team Il Est Francais make their own decision rather than worry about the opposition and go to the distance that is tailor made for him. I also don’t see it as 100% certain he goes here.
Add in the potential of Cheltenham Gaelic Warrior, El Fabiolo, Spillanes Tower, defending champion Protektorat and my big price fancy for the race Jungle Boogie and you have plenty in your favour when looking to take on the favourite.
Verdict: Back Hungle Boogie (EW) 16/1 with bet365.
ADAM: There are still a lot of unknowns again for this race, not least, Fact to File. It’s not certain that he even takes his chance here so would take some confidence to back him regardless of what else might actually join him in the race.
I would still be happy to take him on even if he does turn up as you could have some good horses running for you. With Gaelic Warrior disappointing at the DRF there has to be a strong possibility that he diverts to the further trip. Il Est Francais is still a possibility and I would say it’s odds on for him to come over for this race. Last year’s winner Protektorat looked back to his best on his last start at Windsor as isn’t without a chance. JP also has the option of running Spillanes Tower who would be an obvious danger if lining up.
Fact to File’s season has been geared up to running in a Gold Cup and with 2 hard races over 3 miles on his last 2 starts, is that the best preparation for a Ryanair? I would say no and even though 2 ½ miles might be his optimum trip, he’s a lay all day for me.
Verdict: Lay the favourite.
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Ryanair Chase Trends
- Age – 11 of the last 12 winners have been ages 7-9
- Price – 4 of the last 12 favorites/joint favorites have won, 10/12 winners have been in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 4 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run before Ryanair Chase, 11/12 winners ran within the last 77 days
- 4/12 winners ran in the King George VI Chase (Kempton) on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 1 placed
- 3/12 winners ran in the Ascot Chase (Ascot) on their last run, 2 of the 3 won, 1 placed
- Previous Course Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham, 9/12 winners have had a previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 19-21 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
- Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 4 chase wins
- Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 161 or higher
- Graded Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race, 9/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 race
- Season Form – 8/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
