Stayers Hurdle Betting Tips and Predictions 2024 – 3.30pm Cheltenham Festival Day 3
Our ante-post Cheltenham Festival tipster Adam O’Brien has been through the 2024 Stayers Hurdle and picked out a win and each-way betting tip for the Thursday feature race from this year’s Cheltenham Festival.
The Stayers Hurdle is often referred to as the least classy of the 4 Championship races. ‘No one wants to breed a Stayers Hurdle winner’ is regularly heard withing the sports circle but its often a race that is competitive and can throw up a big-priced winner (33/1 and 50/1 winners in 2 of the last 4 years), but on the flip side can also go to a short price favourite with lots of ability (Thistlecrack evens & Paisley Park 11/8 of late). For that reason, I think it’s a good betting race.
Stayers Hurdle Betting Tips
11 and 10 runners have gone to post at the previous 2 Cheltenham Festival day 3 features and I believe a similar number will line up again this year. It’s a race where we see horses switching from other, more prestigious races like the Gold Cup or even the Champion Hurdle. You can get failed chasers who underperformed at the big obstacles that revert to hurdling again and get aimed at this division. This year’s race is no different and we are likely to see Noble Yeats (Grand National winner and being aimed at the race again this year), Monkfish (who has been off the track more than on it over the last 3 years), and Sir Gerhard (whos had a very uninspiring chase career).
Flooring Porter, Ahoy Senor and Impaire Et Passe are others who still hold entries but these are less likely to turn up. Flooring Porter is almost certain to go to the National Hunt Chase (see our National Hunt Chase 2024 tips here) and Ahoy Senor is likely to stay over fences and go for either the Ryanair (Ryanair Chase 2024 tips here) or Gold Cup. As it stands, Impaire Et Passe is more than likely going to the Champion Hurdle but if things don’t go to plan at the DRF then don’t be surprised if he was to get re-routed.
Of all the horses above, the only one I can see playing their part in the finish is Saturday’s winner of this trial, Noble Yeats. Returning to hurdles for his seasonal reappearance at Xmas (33 months after his last hurdle start), the Emmet Mullins trained Grand National winner improved out of sight to win the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham, fending off the gallant Paisley Park at the line. He pushed himself way up the ladder in the Stayers Hurdle betting odds and is now as short as 8/1 (12/1 out there) for the real one in March. Like all Grand National winners, he poses never-ending stamina and really relished the Cheltenham hill once again when powering up it on trials day. He is a big player in this now and one I couldn’t write off.
Before the 2023 renewal, 6 of the last 7 winners were 7-year-olds (other was a 6 YO Flooring Porter). 11 YO Sire Du Berlais smashed that trend out the park 12 months ago when he was a surprise winner. The race has had multiple back-to-back winners (Flooring Porter as recent as 2021/2022) but surely we won’t see that this year.
The 2 at the top of the market for Gordon Elliott are 6 and 7 year olds. 7 year old Teahupoo ran in the race last year and, after a couple of stewards inquiries, finished 3rd. He went off 9/4 fav for the race having his preferred soft ground and having the best form coming into the race after beating Honeysuckle and Klassical Dream in the Hattons Grace in December. For whatever reason, the race didn’t go to plan last year and although he finished a close-up 3rd, it feels like one that got away.
I think an extra year of growing and improving will see an even better animal this time around and now at the perfect age of 7, I think he’s the one to beat. He ran in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran at the end of January last year and although he won easy, I wonder if that race played a part in last year’s race. Gordon has changed it this year and decided that he will go to Cheltenham fresh. That means he goes off the back of only 1 run in which he won the Hattons Grace hurdle for a 2nd time when beating impressive Ballymore winner Impaire Et Passe.
At the top of the market with his stable mate is Irish Point. The 6 YO bypassed Cheltenham last year to wait for Aintree and he obliged by winning the Mersey Novices Hurdle there over 2m4. He won at 2m on his seasonal reappearance before stepping up to 3 miles for the first time at Xmas when looking an impressive winner of the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown. Connections had mentioned that they might not go to Cheltenham and wait for Aintree again as the stablemates are also both owned by Robcour. But after winning well at Xmas it’s looking likely now that both trainer/owner want another dart at this and are happy to take their chances. Irish Point has lots of improvement to come and is a big player if lines up here. My only doubt is that he hasn’t been to Cheltenham yet and that Jack Kennedy seemed quite convinced the form at Xmas was nothing special and implied he would likely ride Teahupoo (On Racing TV’s Road To Cheltenham) if both got declared.
The only other horse I want to mention is Crambo. Crambo comes here off the back of winning the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot before Xmas. 4 of those horses in behind him that day ran in the Cleeve behind Noble Yeats and holds the form of the division in the UK quite well having pipped Paisley Park by a short head. That was a career-best for the horse and at the ripe age of 7, you would think there’s more improvement to come. The step up in trip has obviously got the best out of the horse and with a different ride, he may well have won both starts at 3m having come home like a train when 3rd in the Betfair hurdle at Haydock in November. Jonathon Burke rode him for the first time at Ascot after Connor Brace was jocked off following that ride at Haydock and trainer Fergal O’Brien was delighted how well he suited the horse. He is without a chance but hes another one that hasn’t experienced Cheltenham before and would concern me slightly.
Even though beaten in last years contest, I believe Teahupoo is the most likely winner of the race. He ticks many of the boxes needed to win this race and I believe they would have learned a lot from last year’s renewal. He’s going to have a different pilot on board and I think that might make all the difference. He has the mix of speed at 2m and 2 ½ miles as well as stamina at 3 and I’m hoping he can go 2 better this year.
Stayers Hurdle Win and Each-Way Tips
Back Teahupoo 1pt win only at 4/1 with Coral’s £20 Cheltenham welcome offer (NRNB)
Back Noble Yeats 0.5pt EW at 12/1 with William Hill’s Cheltenham sign-up offer (NRNB)
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CLAIM!
Ruby Walsh’s Stayers Hurdle Tips
- Irish Point
- Ahoy Senor
“If I had the choice, I’d probably ride Irish Point. Teahupoo tried and failed last year, so I’d go with Irish Point. Go with the unknown rather than the known.”
“I’d have Ahoy Senor in any ante-post list at a huge price. Go back to last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, he was still in front leading them a merry dance when he fell at the last ditch. He was in good form that time, Lucinda Russell has a habit of getting horses back into good form in the spring. I could see him being a huge player getting on the front end with Derek Fox and building it up.
Do I see him winning? One or two might get by him, but would I mind holding an ante-post docket at the prices each-way when he’s turning off the top of the hill a couple of lengths in front? I could see it setting your heart racing.
I do see Irish Point in the frame and probably Teahupoo. They’re the strongest challengers and you could throw in Theleme maybe as well. Sir Gerhard has to stay. The number one pick is Irish Point.”
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Stayers Hurdle Trends
Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8.
Price – 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
Last Run – 8 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Stayers Hurdle, 8/12 winners had their last run with 54 days.
6/12 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 4 of the 6 won, 1 placed.
Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham.
Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 runs over 23-25 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 23-25 furlongs.
Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 8 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 4 previous wins over hurdles.
Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 156 or higher.
Grade 1 Wins – 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 1 win.
Grade 2 Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 2 win.
Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season.
2024 Cheltenham Festival Tips
| Race | Tip | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Supreme Novice Hurdle | Slade Steel (EW) | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - Arkle | Gaelic Warrior | 7/2 |
| 2.50pm - Ultima Handicap | Chianti Classico (EW) | 15/2 |
| Trelawne (EW) | 15/2 | |
| 3.30pm - Champion Hurdle | Iberico Lord W/O State Man AND Irish Point | 15/8 |
| 4.10pm - Mares' Hurdle | Telmesomethinggirl WITHOUT Lossiemouth AND Ashroe Diamond (EW) | 5/1 |
| 4.50pm - Boodles Fred Winter | Palamon (EW) | 20/1 |
| Ose Partir (EW) | 14/1 | |
| 5.30pm - National Hunt Chase | Salvador Ziggy | 11/2 |
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle | Predators Gold (ew) | 10/1 Bet |
| 2.10pm - Brown Advisory Novice Chase | Fact to File | 10/11 |
| 2.50pm - Coral Cup | Guard Your Dreams (ew) | 25/1 |
| Brazil (ew) | 16/1 | |
| 3.30pm - Queen Mother Champion Chase | El Fabiolo double with Ballyburn (1.30pm) | 5/4 |
| 4.10pm - Cross Country Chase | Coko Beach | 4/1 |
| 4.50pm - Grand Annual Chase | Liberty Hunter (ew) | 13/2 |
| 5.30pm - Champion Bumper | C’est Ta Chance (ew) | 16/1 |
| Cantico (ew) | 12/1 |
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Turners Novice Chase | Ginnys Destiny | 4/1 |
| 2.10pm - Pertemps Network Final | Cuthbertdibble | 9/1 |
| 2.50pm - Ryanair Chase | Stage Star | 9/2 |
| 3.30pm - Stayers Hurdle | Teahupoo | 7/4 |
| 4.10pm - Plate Handicap Chase | Theatre Man (ew) | 9/2 |
| 4.50pm - Mares Novice Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead | 13/8 |
| 5.30pm - Kim Muir Chase | Whacker Clan | 12/1 |
| Race | Tip | Bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Triumph Hurdle | Majborough | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - County Hurdle | King of Kingsfield | 5/1 |
| So Scottish (ew) | 14/1 | |
| 2.50pm - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle | Gidleigh Park | 7/1 |
| 3.30pm - Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs | 11/10 |
| 4.10pm - Festival Challenge Cup Hunters Chase | It's on the Line | 9/4 |
| Premier Magic | 13/2 | |
| 4.50pm - Paddy Power Mares Chase | Riviere D’Etel (each-way) | 20/1 |
| 5.30pm - Martin Pipe Hurdle | Better Days Ahead | 10/1 |
