Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Tips 2024 – 8/1 Betting Tip for the Cheltenham Day 4 2.50pm Race
The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, run over 2 miles, 7 furlongs and 213 yards on the New Course at Cheltenham, was added to the Festival Schedule in 2005 and upgraded to Grade One status three years later.
Our Cheltenham Festival ante-post tips this week come from Ciaran Murphy who has picked out a double odds Albert Bartlett betting tip for the Friday race.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 2024 Predictions
The Albert Bartlett is a race that has changed dramatically in the last few years. What was once viewed as a test for only the most battle-hardened of animals has become a much classier affair, producing a Gold Cup winner, a Grand National second and a multiple Group 1 winning (albeit fragile) Chaser in the last 5 years.
To that end, while I would usually look at the stats for the last 10 runnings to build up a profile of a typical winner, for this race, I will look at just 5.
In those 5 years,
- 4 were Irish trained (2 by Willie)
- 4 were aged 6 (the other was 7)
- 4 were priced over 14/1 (with Minella Indo going off 50/1 and two 33/1 winners in the previous 5 years)
- The average number of Runs over hurdles that season before winning is 2.4 (although goes to 2.8 if we count The Nice Guys 2 runs in Bumpers in his victorious campaign..
So while there is no exact science in Horse racing, it may pay to pay attention to Irish-trained 6-year-olds, who will be having their 3rd run of the year and we don’t necessarily have to be put off by prohibitive odds.
At the head of the market is Willie Mullins High Class Hero who solidified this position at the head of the market with an easy win at Thurles. With 4 runs wins under his belt, he certainly has the experience but I question the strength of his form, with half of it coming during the summer months. At his price, he wouldn’t appeal to me.
Joining him at 6/1 is Readin Tommy Wrong, who impressed with his effort in the Lawlors of Naas, looking as if a step up in trip would certainly suit. However, the champion trainer has only sent one of his last 7 winners of that race to the Albert Bartlett and he referred to him as “Typical Ballymore Type” straight after the race. If he were to go, he would certainly be of interest but at the moment, I’ll be looking elsewhere.
On the other hand, he has often used the Nathaniel Lacy Hurdle at the DRF over 2m 6 as a prep for the longer novice hurdle in Cheltenham. Minella Cocooner and Stattler competed in it before going on to be favourites for the Albert Bartlett. This year, that went to the Willie Mullins 4th string Dancing City, beating my early season fancy for this race Predators Gold into 2nd. However, a look back through his form would make it hard to believe that was the outsider of the field. At Punchestown last April, he was second in a bumper, splitting a certain Ballyburn and Slade Steel and while he was beaten on debut for Willie at short odds, that defeat was being outstayed by only half a length by Three Card Brag, giving that Rival 7 pounds (these were on Yielding and Heavy Ground which proves his versatility). I would put a line through his first start of the season, when most of Willie’s needed the run. Paul Townend didn’t give him a hard time when it was clear he was beaten and he has improved on each run since. He has the experience and fits the model of a typical winner in my eyes and at 8/1, I think he represents value in the race.
Representing Gordon Elliot is Croke Park, a £400,000 purchase who took time coming to hand, losing his first bumper before winning back-to-back races in stylish fashion. He gives the impression that he is improving all the time and had a genuine excuse when finishing lame in the aforementioned Lawlors of Naas. Jack Kennedy has signaled him as his preferred mount in the race and so at 20/1, if you are in forgiving mood, he is worth a second look.
Of the English challenge, Captain Teague would have to be respected given his strong showing in the bumper last year and coming from the stable of the defending champ. However, a gruelling contest in the Challow Hurdle may be tough to recover fully from and I am not sure his form over hurdles is at the level of the Irish challenge. I was also impressed by Shanagh Bob’s attitude in his win at Cheltenham but his price has shortened significantly in recent days for a horse who missed an intended engagement in the River Don. Gidleigh Park has also been mentioned for the race but while he may end up being as good as any of these over Fences, I don’t see him winning here.
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle Betting Tip
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Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Trends
- Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7.
- Price – 2 of the last 12 winners have been favorites, 4/12 winners have been in the top 3 in the betting.
- Last Run – 5/12 winners won on their previous run before the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle, 9/12 winners had their last run within 54 days.
- Previous Course Form – 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 4/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham.
- Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 1 run over 23-25 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win over 23-25 furlongs.
- Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles.
- Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 139 or higher.
- Graded Wins – 8/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race.
- Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season.
Cheltenham Festival Day 4 Tips
| Race | Tip | Bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Triumph Hurdle | Majborough | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - County Hurdle | King of Kingsfield | 5/1 |
| So Scottish (ew) | 14/1 | |
| 2.50pm - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle | Gidleigh Park | 7/1 |
| 3.30pm - Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs | 11/10 |
| 4.10pm - Festival Challenge Cup Hunters Chase | It's on the Line | 9/4 |
| Premier Magic | 13/2 | |
| 4.50pm - Paddy Power Mares Chase | Riviere D’Etel (each-way) | 20/1 |
| 5.30pm - Martin Pipe Hurdle | Better Days Ahead | 10/1 |