Menu

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2025 Ante-Post Preview, Tips and Predictions

Cheltenham Gold Cup tips

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is not only the highlight of the Cheltenham Festival but, for many people, the highlight of the entire National Hunt season and our tipster Adam O’Brien has picked his ante-post betting tips for the big race.

The Roll of Honour reads like a ‘Who’s Who’ of staying steeplechasers down the years and includes such luminaries of the sport as Golden Miller,  Cottage Rake, Arkle, Best Mate and Kauto Star, to name but a handful.

 

2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup Ante-post Preview

The main event. The 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup. The Blue Riband of our sport. The best-staying chasers taking each other on over 3m2f and 22 fences with a punishing finish up that famous Cheltenham hill.

It’s never easy going through a race ante-post so far out but with 14 weeks to go until the Festival, the Gold Cup picture is taking shape and looks like it has potential to be one of the best fields we’ve seen in recent times.

There’s still a lot of water to go under the bridge before we go to post, and there are sure to be things that come out in the King George, the Savills, the Irish Gold Cup and who even knows, the Denman chase, that changes the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2025 betting odds. But for now, this piece looks at the current state of the race and its main contenders.

 

Cheltenham 2025 Gold Cup Main Contenders

Fact to File heads the betting (top price 11/4 but general 5/2) after his win in the ultra-competitive John Durkan, run on the 24th November at Punchestown. Ran over an ‘inadequate’ trip of 2m3½f, these staying chasers put on a show on their seasonal debuts. The race has been a starting point for Willie Mullins’ Gold Cup horses (barring Al Boum Photo) in the past and he sees it as the right stepping stone for the season that lies ahead.

Fact to File came into the season off the back of impressive performances and wins at Cheltenham when winning the Brown Advisory, and the Dubin Racing Festival when he blew Gaelic Warrior apart over a 2m5f trip. He swerved Punchestown at the end of the season and I believe that will bode very well come March. Whether he’s the right favourite in the ante-post Gold Cup betting odds at the time of writing can be debated, but the appeal and potential is massive.

2023 and 2024 winner Galopin Des Champs still sets the standard in the division and sits just behind the favourite in the market. A general 7/2 shot, bookies originally pushed him out to generous 5/1 following his 3rd to Fact to File in the previously mentioned John Durkan Chase, before skinning him back to a more accurate price (in my opinion). I would have no concerns whatsoever with that run though and would even mark that run up. Willie let it be known that the horse had a little setback during the summer and lost a couple of weeks work.

2m3f is a trip that would be a real inconvenience to him and he has never run his best races at Punchestown. His form has gone to another level following this race previously and I still believe he is the one to beat at Christmas, the Dublin Racing Festival and in the 2025 Gold Cup. His form on left-handed tracks especially at Cheltenham is brutal and it will take a good one to stop him from becoming only the 5th horse in history to win 3 Gold Cups.

3rd in the betting is a horse that comes from one of the smaller yards in Ireland, Spillanes Tower. A general 8-10/1 shot (stand out 14/1 Coral), this horse followed Fact to File home, beaten ½ length in the John Durkan. Spillanes Tower is still an unknown and a fly in the ointment due to his relatively low mileage and exposure (he’s been kept away from Cheltenham and DRF).

He seems an animal that loves a trip and was impressive when having his only try at 3m at the Punchestown Festival when beating Monty’s Star. That’s quite a good form line due to Monty’s Star being the horse that followed Fact to File home in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham in March. I’m looking forward to seeing Spillanes Tower at Xmas and hopefully booking his ticket to the main event in March. I think he’s got huge improvement in him and I believe he’s a huge player when looking for ante-post Cheltenham Gold Cup tips this far out.

More Irish contenders include last season’s runner-up in the race Gerri Colombe. Gerri is on the back foot slightly after a poor round of jumping when beaten 13 ½ lengths in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal at the start of November. He will have to return to form at Xmas and show us that the disappointment that day was a 1 off. He ran a career best in March and would need to do so again if he is to feature this time around.

Fastorslow has been ruled out for the season which is a big blow for connections, and ante-post punters for the big chases of the season including the Gold Cup and the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.

See Ciaran’s King George ante-post preview here.

A horse alongside those 2 in the betting takes us to our 1st British challenger, Grey Dawning. The loveable grey is sitting at a general 16/1 in the village and I think that’s fair as I believe he would have been a good bit shorter had Haydock not been a pond again for the Betfair Chase. I think he came out of that race with enough credit to be targeted at the Gold Cup and he won’t be without a chance. Having led over the last in the Betfair Chase, you’d have to be a touch disappointed that he couldn’t finish the job but I’m a forgiving type and there wouldn’t be many who got home that day on that ground. If he comes out of the race OK and trainer Dan Skelton does get him ready and firing for the King George, then he will be a serious player in that. And like Fastorslow, if he was to win on Boxing Day then he would become a real player come the spring. I loved the way he won the Turner’s Novices Chase (god rest its soul) last season and even though the form/race has been crabbed, I think it represents a good line going into the rest of this season.

The last of the horses worth a mention and not to be totally dismissed are Monty’s Star, Corbetts Cross and Inothewayurthinkin. The former was mentioned previously due to having form through the top end of the market in Fact to File and Spillanes Tower. He is yet to be seen (or even entered) so far this season so it’s hard to grasp him completely. Trainer Henry De Bromhead is taking the slowly/softly approach with him and with only 7 runs in the previous 2 seasons, I would be surprised if we saw this horse at full throttle before the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. At 20/1, Festival experience and open to improvement, he could be the one that outruns those current odds.

The latter 2 horses are ones with a chance but they are horses that mightn’t be targeted at the race. Hailing from the colours of the green and gold silks, it wouldn’t surprise me if Corbetts Cross & Inothewayurthinkin are targeted at Nationals on either side of the Irish Sea rather than the Gold Cup. They are horses who, if they went to post on the day, I could be interested in, but for now, it’s best to swerve.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2025 Ante-post Betting Tips

Its difficult to see past Galopin Des Champs and I still believe he is the one to beat. I would rather side with him (especially at the prices) than the current favourite Fact to File. I don’t believe the 7/2 about the reigning champ will be there come the end of December.
With Coral a stand-out 14/1 for Spillanes Tower, I would be advising punters to get stuck in before his next run as I cannot see how it remains that big after his next completed start.

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips 

Back Galopin Des Champs 1 pt win at 7/2 (Bet365)

Back Spillanes Tower 0.5 pt EW at 14/1 (Coral)

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

  • Age – 12 of last 12 winners were aged between 7-9
  • Price – 6 of last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 8/12 winners were top 3 in the betting
  • Last Run – 9 of last 12 winners won on their previous run before the Cheltenham Gold Cup, 11/12 winners had their last run within the last 80 days, 12/12 winners had their last run 33 days or longer ago
  • 5/12 winners ran in the Irish Gold Cup (Leopardstown) on their last run, 3 of the 5 won, 0 placed
  • 2/12 winners ran in the Denman Chase (Newbury) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won
  • 2/12 winners ran in the New Years Day Chase (Tramore) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won, 0 placed
  • Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 8/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
  • Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs over 24 furlongs or further, 9/12 winners had at least 3 runs over 24 furlongs or further, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 24 furlongs or further, 8/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 24 furlongs or further
  • Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 11/12 had at least 2 wins over hurdles
  • Previous Chase Form – 9/12 winners had at least 7 previous chase runs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous chase wins, 11/12 had at least 3 previous chase wins
  • Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 164 or higher, 6/12 were rated 170 or higher
  • Grade 1 Wins – 12/12 winners had won at least 1 Grade 1 race, 8/12 had won at least 2 Grade 1 races
  • Grade 2 Wins – 8/12 winners had won at least 1 Grade 2 race
  • Grade 3 Wins – 6/12 winners had won at least 1 Grade 3 race
  • Season Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 11/12 had at least 1 win that season