Triumph Hurdle Tips 2024 – Cheltenham Festival Day 4 1.30pm
Read our Grade One JCB Triumph Hurdle tips from Cheltenham Festival ante-post tipster Adam O’Brien below.
Run over 2 miles 1 furlong on the New Course at Cheltenham, is the main championship for juvenile, or 4-year-old hurdlers at the Cheltenham Festival.
Triumph Hurdle 2024 Tips
With the Triumph trial at Cheltenham and the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival behind us, the race now has a pretty clear picture of how it will look come March. Sir Gino’s demolition of (at the time) favourite Burdett Road at Prestbury Park at the end of January accelerated him to the top of the market just as quickly as he powered up the Cheltenham hill. A mighty performance in beating the Royal Ascot winner by 10 lengths saw bookmakers take cover and shorten him from 6/1 to 6/4.
The Spring Juvenile ran a week later didn’t throw up such a superstar performance and Sir Gino has since been shortened further and now sits at a general 4/5 shot. He sets a standard that is unlikely to be met before March.
Willie Mullins saddled 6 in Ireland’s biggest trial in which he had the first 4 home and 5 of the first 6. The first pass the post was Kargese who has the same profile and connections as last year’s winning mare Gala Marceau. 2nd to Kala Conti over Xmas, the winner turned that form around and benefitted hugely by settling a lot better than her previous run. 9/4fav and 2nd fav for the 2024 Triumph Hurdle at the time Storm Heart was 2nd, beaten 1¾ lengths. He was the chosen ride of Paul Townend due to his impressive performance on debut at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. He ran his race and may have got closer if pinged the last but was well held by the winner. I think better ground would suit this horse more and he’s not to be dismissed for my Triumph Hurdle tips this year.
A further ½ length back in 3rd was Majborough who was having his first run for Willie. A talking horse of JP McManus, he is not your typical Triumph horse. His huge frame is made for chasing and falls into the ‘whatever he does over hurdles will be a bonus’ category. My eyes were drawn to him the whole race even though he was prominent and making the running. I thought he would get swallowed up from the chasing pack but he battled well and kept on to hold onto 3rd. That was his Irish debut and you couldn’t not be impressed by him and I expect huge improvement to come on his next start.
There was another ½ length back each to 4th place Bunting and 5th place Kala Conti. Bunting, having his 2nd start in Ireland, was doing his best work at the finish and actually came home the quickest from 4 out to the line. His jumping let him down though and he lost ground at a few flights. He will have to jump better if he is to challenge the market leaders come March. Kala Conti is unlikely to go to Cheltenham and will likely wait for Fairyhouse according to his trainer Gordon Elliott.
I would say the form of the Spring Juvenile is strong but I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of this form turned around next time. A bunched finish (2 ¾ lengths between the first 5) indicates to me that there’s not too much between these and if the race was run 5 times, you would get a few different winners.
I would be amazed if the winner of the race didn’t come from one of those 2 races. The only other key trial still to be run is the Adonis at Kempton on 24th February. The Paul Nicholls-trained Kalif Du Berlais is likely to run here and if he wins impressively then he throws his hat into the ring and his trainer would have to be tempted to go to Cheltenham. The Adonis used to be a very good trial for this and was always the standout form to go by. But things have changed and Zarkandar was the last horse to do the double 13 years ago. The last 8 winners of it that have contested the triumph have been beaten and unplaced.
11 of the last 12 winners of the Triumph have been Irish and it’s a race they have well and truly dominated in that time. 8 of the last 12 winners contested the race at Leopardstown and with the race being so strong, I wouldn’t put anyone off taking Sir Gino on with any of the first 6 home.
9 of the last 15 winners were unbeaten going into the Triumph which doesn’t bode well for those above horses who have all tasted defeat. However, Lossiemouth showed last year that you can lose at the DRF but still come back and take the honours in March.
Apart from passing the eye test and the speed gurus, Sir Gino also ticks a lot of boxes on the Triumph Hurdle trends front. 7 of the last 9 winners were French-bred whilst favourites or those at the top end of the market have a great record. It also helps that your trainer has a fantastic record in the race with Nicky Henderson having won it no fewer than 7 times.
I cannot see how Burdett Road turns the form around with Sir Gino based on the demolition at Cheltenham. The only other horse I can see potentially troubling Sir Gino is Willie Mullins Salvator Mundi, who consequently is owned by Joe Donnelly, the owner of the favourite. The pair have form together from France where Sir Gino got the better of his rival that day. Beaten 1 ¾ lengths and given a dubious ride, there is no reason why he couldn’t turn that form around 11 months on. The pair pulled 10 lengths clear of the rest of the field and are clearly both talented animals with the only difference being that Sir Gino has performed and shown his form on the track in the UK.
Salvator Mundi is still to be seen on the track despite moving to Willie Mullins in the winter. He has had a couple of setbacks and wasn’t pleasing connections enough to run at the DRF so remains a doubt for this. It’s not un-Willie like to send a horse to the Triumph on stable debut so if hes showing signs at home that he can compete here then I fully expect him to run and be competitive.
I believe Sir Gino is the most likely winner and a hard one to expose but I think we could have a lurker in the pack that could be anything and for that reason, I would chance him using one of the Cheltenham 2024 non-runner no bet bookies because if he gets there on the day there’s no chance he will be the price he is now. I’m also happy to put up Majborough as I believe he will come on a bundle for his first run and I would be disappointed if hes not in the first 3/4 on the day.
Follow Adam on Twitter for more Cheltenham ante-post opinion.
Triumph Hurdle 2024 Each-way Betting Tips
Back Majborough 0.5pt EW at 10/1 (bet365 NRNB)
Back Salvator Mundi 0.5pt EW at 12/1 (Paddy Power NRNB) or 25/1 ante-post with Coral.
Ruby Walsh’s Triumph Hurdle Tip
- Highwind
” You want to get in first for a bit of value and I thought the one that won in Punchestown last Monday that Sean O’Keeffe rode called Highwind. He did so much wrong – he never jumped a hurdle, he was keen, he was up, he was back, he was in, he was out and he still showed a serious turn of foot to put the race to bed. Went to refuse the last, landed out on his head, they landed beside him and he was gone again going to the winning post. I’d say for natural talent at 12-1, he was definitely an each-way poke. Kargese – New track, two miles and one furlong, racing keen that can be hard. You get the Cheltenham Gold Cup there, not Rory’s favourite day there, biggish crowd and lots of noise, trying to switch one off on Gold Cup day now is pretty tricky.
“I don’t know – look obviously we are 13 days out from the Spring Juvenile and that will put a different picture on it. But looking at the form and looking for the scope in improvement for horses, I think Highwind at the prices. He’s double the price of Storm Heart – I know Storm Heart was more professional at Punchestown, but you’re getting double the price for a horse that has loads of scope for improvement.”
Triumph Hurdle Trends
Age – Race is for 4yo’s only.
Price – Only 3 of the last 12 favorites have won, 7/12 winners have been in the top 3 in the betting.
Last Run – 8/12 winners won on their last run before the Triumph Hurdle, 12/12 winners had their last run no more than 55 days ago.
5/12 winners ran in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Leopardstown) on their last run, 1 of the 5 won, 3 placed.
2/12 winners ran in the Finesse Juvenile Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won.
2/12 winners ran in the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Kempton) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won.
Previous Course Form – 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham.
Previous Distance Form – 8/12 winners had at least 2 runs over 15-17 Furlongs, 11/12 winners had at least 1 win over 15-17 furlongs.
Previous Hurdle Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles.
Rating – 8/12 winners were rated 140 or higher (4/12 didn’t have a rating yet).
Graded Wins – 6/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race.
Season Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs that season, 11/12 winners had at least 1 win that season.
Cheltenham Day 4 Tips
| Race | Tip | Bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Triumph Hurdle | Majborough | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - County Hurdle | King of Kingsfield | 5/1 |
| So Scottish (ew) | 14/1 | |
| 2.50pm - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle | Gidleigh Park | 7/1 |
| 3.30pm - Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs | 11/10 |
| 4.10pm - Festival Challenge Cup Hunters Chase | It's on the Line | 9/4 |
| Premier Magic | 13/2 | |
| 4.50pm - Paddy Power Mares Chase | Riviere D’Etel (each-way) | 20/1 |
| 5.30pm - Martin Pipe Hurdle | Better Days Ahead | 10/1 |
