ITV Racing Tips for Ayr and Newbury on Saturday 12th April
1:10 Ayr
The first race from Ayr is a handicap chase over an extended 2 mile trip.
I’d be happy to chance ETALON (11/2) to return to form, given a mark of 135 is very lenient if he runs anywhere near the level we seen from him last season. He’s had a wind operation and connections have put a tongue-tie on. If that helps as expected, he could make this mark look silly. He’s a fair price for the Skelton’s who need a big weekend, and hopefully, this gets them off to a good start.
1:25 Newbury
We also have live flat racing from Newbury. The first comes up at 1:25 and it is the John Porter, a Group 3 contest over 1m4f.
I like SUNWAY (7/4) in here. Comfortably shown the best form of this lot last season with his 2nd in the Irish Derby and his 3rd in the St Leger looking like strong 3-year-old form. He finished his season running in the Arc and ran respectably enough, given his wide draw. I see no reason why he can’t kick on again this season. Tough to beat if he’s ready to go.
1:43 Ayr
The 1:43 from Ayr is the Novice’s Champion Handicap Chase over 3m.
The one for me is PIC ROC (7/1) EW. A progressive hurdler last season, he showed improved form to finish a good second in two decent chase handicaps this season at Exeter and then at Newbury. The standing start at Cheltenham gave him no chance, so put a line through that effort. I think this mark of 136 is well within his reach, and hopefully, he can show us that here.
2:00 Newbury
It’s back to Newbury next for the Fred Darling, a Group 3 for the 3-year-old fillies over 7f.
This is a great renewal of the race and one for the notebooks. I do like SIMMERING (7/2) who looks best over this 7f trip. She had strong 2-year-old form last season in all the right races, including a victory at Group 2 level. She was stepped up to a mile on her final start of her 2-year-old campaign but didn’t really see it out. I think 7f is her best trip, and some of her rivals may be best seen over slightly further. Hopefully, she can use her pace to make a winning start for her 2025 campaign.
2:15 Ayr
The 2:15 from Ayr is the Scottish Champion Hurdle, a trappy handicap over 2 miles.
It is ETHICAL DIAMOND (10/3) NB for me here. Willie Mullins means business this weekend, and he can get off the mark here. Ethical Diamond was last seen finishing a really good 4th in the competitive County Hurdle at Cheltenham. He shaped full of promise, and he’ll relish this quick surface. I think there is more to come over hurdles and I expect him to take a fair bit of beating in this.
2:35 Newbury
The 2:35 from Newbury is the Group 3 Greenham Stakes over 7 furlongs.
I’d chance DIABLO ROJO (16/1) EW in this. He comes here with a run under his belt after winning decisively at Lingfield on his return. This is an obvious rise in class, but the stable are in flying form and he offers good each-way value. I think stepping back up to 7f could bring out further improvement in the retained tongue-tie and we have no doubts he’ll be ready to go. Some of his rivals will be using this as a preparation for bigger targets down the line, and hopefully, he can catch them cold.
2:55 Ayr
The 2:55 from Ayr comes next, a mares handicap hurdle over the extended 3 mile trip.
It is LAVIDA AVIDA (9/2) who was an impressive winning nap for the column at Kelso three weeks ago. She duly bolted up that day and relished the step-up in trip. She’s clearly thriving and a 6lb rise for that dominant victory seems fair. Hopefully, she can follow up again with Brian Hughes maintaining the partnership.
3:12 Newbury
The 3:12 from Newbury is the competitive Spring Cup handicap over the mile.
The one for me is PEARL EYE (20/1) EW who was last seen winning the Spring Mile at Doncaster in the stewards room. That was a competitive race and he can be marked up for that victory, given he had to wait for room at a crucial stage. A 4lb rise seems more than fair for that fine display and with the Daryl Holland team continuing in great form. I think he is worth sticking with at the prices.
3:35 Ayr
The final race is the feature, the Scottish Grand National over 4 miles.
It is hard to get away from CHOSEN WITNESS (13/2) NAP in here. He was a decent staying hurdler last season and that included a victory here at Ayr which is encouraging. He’s shown plenty of promise over fences this season and looked to be travelling well before coming down 4 out last time out. That was at Grade 2 level. I think he’ll relish this marathon distance and if his jumping can hold up, he can make a mockery off his current mark. I like his chances.
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