Kevin Blake’s Boxing Day Tips – King George & Long Walk Hurdle Bets from Kempton
Kevin Blake is one of the best horse racing pundits and tipsters around and he has picked out his two Boxing Day tips from the Kempton card. The King George Chase is the big race of the day and he’s also taken a look at the Long Walk Hurdle at 12.45pm.
Boxing Day is one of the best horse racing days of the season and the King George is always the race that pulls in the crowds. This year will be no different with a high class field set to line up, headed by L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame. Frodon is set to line up in the race again but Kevin Blake’s tip for the King George is a 20/1 outsider, after Tony Calvin tipped an even bigger King George outsider in his column.
Kevin Blake’s King George Chase 2022 Tip
Blake told his Betfair column “The featured King George VI Chase (14:30) really is a cracker of a race. It might lack the X-factor that Allaho would have brought to it had he run as planned, but what’s left is a deeply-competitive race with nine runners with seven of them rated within 5lb of each other.
I have reasons to take on some of those at the front end of the market. I wasn’t as taken with the winning seasonal reappearance of L’Homme Presse as many were, including the official handicapper who raised him 6lb to 170 off the back it.
My longstanding evidence-based view is that the highest-rated chasers are well-in when reverting to handicap chase company and carrying big weights to victory isn’t as meritorious as many imagine. He might well come on from that run and win this, but at his price I’m happy to look elsewhere.
Similarly, I wasn’t as taken with Envoi Allen’s win in the Champion Chase at Down Royal. It was surprising to see him win given how he jumped and with a few of his main rivals disappointing and the time of the race being poor, I’m inclined to treat the form with scepticism for now.
Of the market leaders, Bravemansgame is the one I’d favour. He is a fabulous jumper of a fence and has shown that this track suits him well. Paul Nicholls is likely to have every screw tightened for this and he looks the likeliest winner to me.
However, he isn’t the bet.
There is one horse in this race that is significantly overpriced and while it requires a leap of faith to get involved, I will make a case for Ahoy Senor.
That view is rooted in the belief that he would have a better chance of winning the Stayers’ Hurdle than the Gold Cup and I still hold that view. However, the King George VI is a very different race to the Gold Cup and in a wide-open renewal, he looks notably overpriced.
After all, he’s already beaten the likes of L’Homme Presse and Bravemansgame in the recent past and has shown himself to be very good on his day. The main issue that he has is an erratic jumping technique that has held him back from showing his very best over fences.
However, when one looks back at his latest run at Aintree, he was notably erratic at the first two fences, but once he was allowed to get on with it in front, his jumping was quite solid, albeit out to his right throughout.
That is worth paying attention to, as Ahoy Senor has jumped out to his right throughout his time over fences, yet only two of his eight starts over them have been around right-handed tracks.
While Bravemansgame ultimately put him well in his place on one of those occasions over this course and distance last year, he looked more comfortable jumping around Kempton than he has most other tracks.
The main issue for him on that day was that Derek Fox didn’t go quick enough in front and left Ahoy Senor vulnerable to the turn of foot of Bravemansgame.
There is other pace in this race, but what I’d love to see is for Derek Fox to be positive on Ahoy Senor. The seven-year-old doesn’t seem to have a great ability to think on his feet when asked to shorten into fences and has seemed best when allowed to go forward and attack.
If Derek allows him to do that and gets into a good rhythm, I could definitely see him hitting the frame and it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he was able to go very close.”
TIP: AHOY SENOR – 20/1 with bet365.
Kevin Blake’s Long Walk Hurdle Tip
“This is a properly fascinating race as I see two elements to it, sorting out the rematch between Champ and Paisley Park after their latest clash in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury produced a classic tussle, and then deciding if the younger brigade in opposition to them are going to be up to that sort of level.
My view on the latter question is that they probably won’t be. Goshen is a loveable lunatic, but in fairness to him he has been a much more reliable proposition when kept to right-handed tracks and the rain that has arrived will certainly help him cause.
The trip is an unknown, but I suspect he’ll be fine over it. I’m just not sure he is much if any better than a high-150s horse and that leaves him a little bit short of the big two who has no trip questions to answer. It wouldn’t be a shock if he won, but at his price I am happy to just wish him well.
Similarly, Miranda is a mare I’ve always liked and she seemed to jump forward when bolting up in her first try at three miles in a Listed mares’ hurdle at Kempton last time. However, I don’t want to take the form of a steadily-run three-runner race to the bank just yet given the market seems to be giving her full credit for it.
Just a neck and width of the track separated Champ and Paisley Park in the Long Distance Hurdle after what has been a riveting race. That victory for Champ means that their rivalry currently sits at two apiece after their four clashes and it is clear that there isn’t much between them.
Some will point to Champ’s very good record when fresh, but in fairness to him, he has a very good record over hurdles in general whether he is fresh or not and he has only run a bit below form on one occasion over them.
He reminded us that front-running suits him quite well (remember how well he ran in the Game Spirit Chase under such tactics?) when doing what he did at Newbury and while he may not get the lead to himself in this contest given the presence of Goshen, Jonjo Jnr will have the option up his sleeve if he needs it.
The main reason I favour him on Monday is that I feel he could and should have beaten Paisley Park more easily than he did at Newbury. Jonjo Jnr set a more solid pace than he needed to, recording a finishing speed of 99.7%, which was unnecessary given that his lead was uncontested throughout.
Going that extra stride faster was the only thing that gave the strong-staying Paisley Park a chance on the day. Had Jonjo Jnr been a bit more measured in the fractions he set, he is likely to have won with much more to spare.
While this switch to a right-handed track is a slight concern considering that Champ has shown an intermittent tendency to jump a bit to his left, the speed-favouring nature of Kempton should play to his strengths and against those of Paisley Park just enough to tip the balance in his favour. It promises to be an enthralling contest.
TIP: Champ – 2/1 with Betfred.
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