Predicting the 1-2-3 in the 2025 Grand National
The modern Grand National bears little resemblance to the race of old, but from a punting point of view, it has actually become easier to pick a winner. If we take out the 50/1 2022 winner, Noble Yeats, the average SP of the winner in the last 7 years is just 9/1.
Some other trends which may be useful in picking a winner are listed below:
- 14 out of the last 16 winners were having their first start in the Grand National, indicating that we don’t necessarily need horses for courses.
- The average age of the last nine winners is 8 years old.
- The past nine winners were aged 9 or younger.
- Five of the last seven winners won last time out.
- The average rating of the last 10 winners is just over 150. Although this is probably irrelevant, given that the lowest rated horse in the race is likely to be 147. This, however, does point to a classier type of animal winning the race, with the last 4 winners having their following start in a grade 1 contest.
Who will win the 2025 Grand National?
- Perceval Legallois – 11/1 with William Hill.
A progressive handicap chaser who I think is verging on Grade 1 class. An 8-year-old, having his first start in the Grand National and who has won his last 2 starts, he fits plenty of the trends. Two starts ago, he bolted up in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, beating a Galway Plate winner and the subsequent Bobby Jo winner (with whom he is 7 pounds better off for this race). He is ground versatile and will certainly handle the likely sound surface. He also represents the Gold Cup-winning connections of JP McManus, Gavin Cromwell and (likely) Mark Walsh. Perhaps, having this lad in the stable made is easier to scratch Inothewayurthinkin from the race.
Main Danger
- Iroko – 8/1 with William Hill.
My long-term selection for the race has been Iroko, although his price is on the short side now. The key deciding factor me here has been the ability of the training duo to target and hit for the green and gold. Iroko himself took out the Martin Pipe and this year, Jagwar was hugely impressive in winning the Plate at the Cheltennham Festival. They have been upfront about the fact that this has been the target, and with that in mind, we can disregard the first three starts of this year. Last time out could be viewed as a satisfactory prep run, getting just 3 pounds of a genuine Grade 1 performer. His last run at Aintree, he was beaten just 4 lengths in a Grade 1 contest himself. The winner that day was Inothewayurthinkin. Does anyone know what happened to him? Those who say he can’t jump should look back at his chase debut at Warwick where he was electric. Perhaps teaching him to jump with a little more restraint will be the key to him getting this extended trip.
Long Shot
- Meetingofthewaters – 25/1 with bet365.
This JP guy knows that he is doing right? Well, the case for this one needs more than a little trust, especially with the fact that he is having his second go at the race being a clear negative on the stats. However, attempting this last year, aged 7, after a long season, was probably not ideal and can be forgiven. And yet, watch the race back! To me, he is travelling like the winner 3 out. Perhaps he just doesn’t stay, or perhaps he had just bottomed out after winning the Paddy Power and running 3rd in the Ultima that season, giving 4 pounds to Chianti Classico in the latter (I think CC would have been close to favourite here were it not for injury).
To back this horse, you need to disregard all three of his runs this year, which is easier said than done. However, if we work on the assumption he has been targeted at this race all year and has had one day in mind, then we can forgive those efforts. For what it’s worth (and personally, I think very little), Willie also name-checked this horse when the weights came out. The unknown is jockey bookings. There is a chance Mark Walsh opts to ride, which would immediately half his price. Danny Mullins rode him for his Paddy Power win, although he also has the option of Minella Cocooner, who he rode to win the Bet365 Gold Cup last year. If either of those two are on board, that would be very significant and would increase confidence massively.
Predicting the Grand National 1-2-3
- Perceval Legallois
- Iroko
- Meetingofthewaters
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