Royal Ascot Tips 2021: St. James’s Palace Stakes Ante-post Preview
The third and final Group 1 race on the opening day of Royal Ascot, the St. James’s Palace Stakes is often contested by horses that ran with distinction in the English, Irish and French 2,000 Guineas.
This year appears no different, with the winners from Newmarket and Longchamp potentially in opposition, together with several others who contested the early season colts’ Classics.
St. Mark’s Basilica sets the standard
One of half a dozen Aidan O’Brien-trained entries, St. Mark’s Basilica ran on strongly to win the
Poule d’Essai des Poulains at Longchamp with something in hand on his reappearance in mid-May. In so doing, he beat the 2,000 Guineas winner Poetic Flare 2¼ lengths into sixth place, so it’s no real surprise that he heads the market here. The Siyouni colt has done all his winning on soft, or very soft, going, but handles faster underfoot conditions, as he demonstrated when a close third in the National Stakes at the Curragh last September.
Poetic Flare proving resilient
Unusually, Poetic Flare ran in the English, French and Irish 2,000 Guineas, finishing first, sixth and second. He’s finished behind St. Mark’s Basilica on both occasions they’ve met, so far, but doesn’t have much to find on French 2,000 Guineas form. Like his old rival, he appears versatile ground-wise and is clearly as tough as old boots, having contested three Classics in the space of three weeks, and warrants maximum respect.
Mostahdaf bred to be a champion
The impeccably-bred, and unbeaten, Mostahdaf is the least experienced runner in the field, which could count against him in the face of battle-hardened opposition. The form of his half-length victory over Highland Avenue in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown, achieved on soft going, wouldn’t be good enough to win this, either. He owes his prominent position in the ante-post market to his untapped potential, rather than his achievements on the racecourse and faces, far and away, his toughest task to date.
Lucky Vega shouldn’t be underestimated
Lucky Vega was only beaten a short head and a neck by Poetic Flare at Newmarket and although further behind at the Curragh, where he started favourite, still ran creditably on his first attempt on going softer than yielding. The state of the ground could be the key to his chance but, with the long-range weather charts showing a heatwave for June, it’s reasonable to assume that the going will be on the fast side. If so, Lucky Vega looks a live contender.
A fascinating contest, to which the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, run on good to firm going, could prove the key. Poetic Flare was victorious on that occasion but, now that he has proved his stamina over a mile, Lucky Vega may be capable of his narrow defeat. Jockey Shane Foley later said that, if he had his time over again, he would have ridden Lucky Vega more positively at Newmarket. If he chooses to do so at Ascot, the sweeping home turn and relatively short, 2½-furlong straight could be to his advantage.
Selection: Lucky Vega (7/1 with Betfred)
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