Staking a Claim Post Christmas Tips (Week 10 & 11) – Four More Chelteham Ante-post Bets

The Christmas period of horse racing has been and gone and we now have more clues about the Cheltenham Festival in March. After a week off last week, Ciaran and OB are back with two picks each to add to their Cheltenham ante-post portfolio.

You can see all the existing selections in the table at the end of this article and there are also links to the write-ups for each week.

All the selections will be recorded as a 1pt win or 0.5pts each-way and we haven’t restricted the tips to any particular bet so you can expect to see singles, doubles and even the odd treble for the tips.

You can also follow both Ciaran (@murphfinbarrs) and OB (@OB_14) on Twitter where they will be outlining all of their ante-post bets and thoughts ahead of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.

 

Ciaran’s Week 10 Bet

• Selection: Salvador Ziggy (Pertemps)
• 25/1 with Paddy Power

My first selection sees me dip into handicap company for the first time. Now, this is a dangerous game to play at this stage and plenty of more seasoned punters than I would say that it’s crazy to bet without marks and when you are unsure of targets. However, on the latter point, I think the Pertemps is a bit of an exception as it is usually pretty clear to see which horses are being aimed at the race. 

Maxxum jumped to the head of the market with a 16 length romp in the Leopardstown qualifier over the Christmas period. He has now gone up 39 pounds in his last 2 starts, which would guarantee him a run. He is closely followed in the market by Charles Byrnes Shoot First who won the Cheltenham qualifier. However, winners of Qualifiers have an atrocious record in the Final (2 wins in the last 20). Indeed it has paid to look out for those sneaking in the final places (4 places this year having been 6 for the last few years). It also pays to follow Gordon Elliot in the face, between 2017 and 2021, he had 11 runners in the race. Three won and the 7 of the other 8 finished in the top 5.

And sure enough, coming in 4th place in the October Cheltenham Qualifier was Gordon’s SALVADOR ZIGGY. This horse has current Stayers Hurdle Fav Home by the Lee in trouble when he ran out in Down Royal, Where he gave this rival and solid yardstick Off You Go and Ronald Pump 7 pounds and a beating. Home by the Lee is now rated 157 which makes me believe that Salvador Ziggy could have plenty in hand. He ran off 145 in Cheltenham and shouldn’t receive more than a couple of pounds for that run (3rd place An Tailliur got 3) so a mark around 147 is very workable. He could also be in the region of 12 pounds better off with Shoot First for that 4 length defeat, and yet is 5 times the price. Botox Has who came second in that race went on to frank the form, winning  next time in Haydock (blowing his own handicap mark in the process). 

Salvador Ziggy hasa timeform rating of 146 which makes him the 4th highest Novice hurdler (ahead of the likes of Gaelic Warrior and Grangeclare West) and has just gone 7 so should still be improving and will love the better spring ground. The plan is to go straight to the Pertemps but Gordon likes to enter a few at the Warwick Meeting in Mid Jan to check on Handicap Marks. An entry for SZ could see a market move so the 25/1 on offer with BF/PP is well with a punt now. (A lack of entry wouldn’t be the biggest concern as he has already ran in a British Handicap)

Salvador Ziggy 25/1 (EW) 

 

Ciaran’s Week 11 Bet

• Selection: Arctic Bresil Without Favile Vega (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle)
• Current Odds: 16/1 (EW) with bet365

My second selection comes in the opening race of the festival, the Supreme Novice. But those of you who think that I am joining in on the Facile Vega bashing will be disappointed. While the Champion Bumper winner wasn’t overly impressive at Leopardstown, he still won a grade 1 by 4 lengths and he did it very easily to my eye, even if he was admittedly below his best. We have to remember that the great man is working back from one day in March and there will be a lot more to come. 

Of his rivals, OB may have to send an engineer to Seven Barrows to check out the Power shortage in the Jet, and while Rare edition was impressive, he has run this year in Worcester and Doncaster (a path that wouldn’t point to festival glory). 

I am a big fan of both Marine Nationale and Irish Point but it was the performance of Henry De Bromhead’s ARCTIC BRESIL that impressed me most. A £300,000 purchase at the November 2021 Cheltenham sale, Henry has taken his time with this one and he looks to have benefitted as a result. While he didnt win either of his points, he unseated when coming to win his first and was second on his next attempt in a race where the first and 3rd were also both sold for 300k+. 

In winning his Maiden hurdle, despite being very keen, he showed an impressive turn of foot and while he threw in a couple of scruffy jumps, he pinged the last when going at full speed. The ferocious pace of a supreme should help both his jumping and ability to settle. While he is an ex pointer, which means he is well able to stay, Henry has said he will stick to 2 miles this year and his next run will either be in the Grade 1 Tolworth on Saturday or the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer the week after. 

If you want to take on Facile Vega, there is 33/1 available on Skybet in the outright market. However, I am neither greedy, nor stupid so I am happy with half that price in the without FV market with the same firm or Bet365

Back Arctic Bresil Without Favile Vega at 16/1 (EW) 

 

OB’s Week 10 Bet

• Selection: Three Card Brag (Albert Bartlett)
• Current Odds: 14/1 with bet365

After a week off during the Xmas period, we resume with 2 selections to take our total so far to 11. It was a hectic period with massive amounts of racing and things to take out of it. I thought at least one of my selections would have come from a horse who ran over Xmas but I believe there are still so many question marks on a number of races so my selections come from horses who had Xmas off.

My first selection is a horse who runs on the weekend though in the Lawlor of Naas 2m4f novice hurdle. I’m tipping him now with the anticipation of his price shortening after Sunday’s race. THREE CARD BRAG for the Albert Bartlett is added to the team sheet this week. The 14/1 still out there is fair and I’m happy to take that before the weekend.

Having only run at 2m & 2m3f (with the weekend’s race being 2m4f) on soft/heavy ground tipping him for a 3m race could be a risk but I believe he will be a better horse for a step up in trip and that’s why I think he will end up in the Albert Bartlett in March.

A few shroods have this horse on their Martin Pipe shortlist but the owners (Max McNeil) like their jockey (Adrian Heskin) riding and they are in the game for G1 winners so I believe he will only be going to the Ballymore or the Bartlett.

I think both races are wide open and we will know more after Sunday’s race but I think my selection will end up at the longer distance and im confident he can be competitive in this. Better ground (which he may get on the Friday of Cheltenham) is an unknown at the moment but I don’t think it will be an issue.

Ill be watching Sunday’s race closely and hope he stays on strong at the end to show us all that he will relish a further step up in trip.

Stake – 1pt win only THREE CARD BRAG  (Albert Bartlett) 14/1 BET365

 

OB’s Week 11 Bet

• Selection: El Fabiolo (Turners)
• Current Odds: 10/1 with bet365

My second selection is a risk and im getting involved in the Willie Mullins bingo early. The novice chase division hasn’t been set alight yet and with Willie having so many in this division it’s not easy to know who will be running where. But if you get it right and get a horse to the start then you have a great chance of it winning, so is the strength of his yard.

After watching his chasing debut a few times I’m adamant EL FABIOLO needs further than 2m and I’m hoping Willie agrees and sends him to the Turners. He’s as big as 10/1 for it and again, I think that’s fair and worth chancing.

Trying to split Willies runners on where they might go is tough but I would be confident Dysart Dynamo will go to the Arkle. There’s a chance Appreciate It goes there too (entered in a 2m race again at the weekend) and if he does then I can only see El Fabiolo going to the Turners.

The Turners is wide open. Mighty Potter is the right favourite and looked good when winning the Drinmore and it will take a good one to beat him. But apart from that the race lacks depth. If you go through the top 10-15 currently in the betting it is packed with NR’s (going elsewhere) and it can be a good race to bet in Ante-Post.

Im sure the decisions on all of Willie’s novices will be left to as late as possible and things will change from now until March but AP betting is getting the mix of risk/reward right and im happy to take that risk here.

Stake – 1pt win only EL FABIOLO  (Turners ) 10/1 BET365

 

Staking a Claim Tips so Far

	Ciaran	OB
Week 1	Galopin Des Champs (Cheltenham Gold Cup) & Allaho (Ryanair) ODDS: 12.5/1	Gaillard Du Mesnil (National Hunt Chase) Delta Work (Cross Country) ODDS: 15/1
Week 2	Dysart Dynamo (Arkle) ODDS: 16/1	Brandy Love (Mares Hurdle) ODDS: 5/1
Week 3	Honeysuckle (Champion Hurdle) ODDS: 4/1	Chapeau De Soleil (Champion Bumper) ODDS: 12/1
Week 4	Ashroe Diamond (Mares Novice) ODDS: 9/1	Blazing Khal (Stayers Hurdle) ODDS: 6/1
Week 5	Proschema EW (Stayers Hurdle) ODDS: 25/1	Jet Powered (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) ODDS: 14/1
Week 6	Grangeclare West (Ballymore) ODDS: 10/1	Telmesomethinggirl (Mares Chase) ODDS: 8/1
Week 7	James Du Berlais (Brown Advisory Chase) EW ODDS: 20/1	Lossiemouth (Triumph Hurdle) and Luccia (Mares novice hurdle) ODDS: 19/1 win double
Week 8	Hiddenvalley Lake (Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle) ODDS: 8/1	Three Stripe Life (Brown Advisory Novices Chase) ODDS: 14/1 win double
Week 9	Barry The Butcher (Champion Bumper) ODDS: 20/1	Impaire Et Passes (to win any race) ODDS: 6/1 win double
Week 10	Salvador Ziggy (Pertemps) ODDS: 25/1	Three Card Brag (Albert Bartlett) ODDS: 14/1
Week 11	Arctic Bresil Without Favile Vega (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) ODDS: 20/1	El Fabiolo (Turners) ODDS: 10/1
Week 12	Fascile Mode (Champion Bumper) ODDS: 12/1	Risk Belle (The Boodles Fred Winter) ODDS: 16/1
Week 13	Tekao (Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) ODDS: 8/1 NRNB	Selection: Chris’s Dream (Hunters Chase) ODDS: 10/1
Week 14	Brandy Love (Mares Hurdle) ODDS: 4/1 NRNB	Threeunderthrufive (Ultima Handicap Chase) ODDS: 12/1 NRNB
Week 15	Galvin (Cross Country Chase) ODDS: 6/1	Gerri Colombe (Brown Advisory Chase) ODDS: 8/1
Week 16	Inothewayyourthinking (Martin Pipe) ODDS: 16/1	Spanish Harlem (Martin Pipe) ODDS: 20/1
Week 17	Coole Cody (Plate Handicap) EW ODDS: 40/1	Bravemansgame (Gold Cup) ODDS: 8/1
Week 18	Shanbally Kid (Albert Bartlett) ODDS: 25/1 EW	Camprond (Coral Cup) ODDS: 20/1
Week 19	Gerri Colombe (Brown Advisory) & Mighty Potter (Turners)double ODDS: 6/1	Sharjah (County Hurdle) ODDS: 10/1 EW
Week 20	Dino Blue (Grand Annual) ODDS: 7/1	Mighty Potter (Turners Chase) & Edwardstone (Champion Chase) ODDS: 11/2

Staking a Claim week 1 Selections

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