Staking A Claim Week 12 Tips – 2023 Champion Bumper & Fred Winter Betting Tips

We’re getting ever closer to the 2023 Cheltenham Festival and are over half-way in our Cheltenham ante-post series we’re calling Staking a Claim. This week, Ciaran and OB are back with two more picks focusing on the Champion Bumper and a first dip into the handicap races for OB.

You can see all the existing selections in the table at the end of this article and there are also links to the write-ups for each week. That’s 22 ante-post tips already in the can for the 2023 Festival and although some have already fallen away, we hope to go into March with some nice ante-post prices and live chances.

All the selections will be recorded as a 1pt win or 0.5pts each-way and we haven’t restricted the tips to any particular bet so you can expect to see singles, doubles and even the odd treble for the tips.

You can also follow both Ciaran (@murphfinbarrs) and OB (@OB_14) on Twitter where they will be outlining all of their ante-post bets and thoughts ahead of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.

 

Ciaran’s Week 12 Bet

• Selection: Fascile Mode (Champion Bumper)
• 12/1 with bet365

This week sees me revisit a race that I have previously advised a selection for. While in an ideal world, I would only put up one horse  in each race, I am not afraid to back 2 or even 3 in the same field, if the price is right. In week 9, I advised Barry the Butcher for the Champion Bumper (20/1) based on an entry on Stephens Day, in what would be a historically strong bumper (last year’s renewal gave us Facile Vega).

Unfortunately, that entry didn’t lead to a declaration and the owners (who wouldn’t be renowned for bumpers anyway) instead sent “Did I Ask You That”, who while beaten into 2nd, I think will be better with a more patient ride. I would say BTB is now more likely to be seen in the Bob Olinger/Journey With Me bumper in Gowran in March before a campaign at the Ballymore next year, where the Mulryans will hope to bring home their own prize money as they did with City Island in 2019. I would look into cashing out BTB bets where possible and reinvesting when markets open for the Ballymore 2024.

In my case for that horse in Week 9, I made the argument that Mullins’s bumper form had been questionable in comparison to his usual embarrassment of riches. I do think OB’s week 3 selection Chapeau du Soleil is better than he showed on debut, but my selection is another Mullins horse…Tom Mullins FASCILE MODE. 

To me, this was the best bumper performance in Ireland this season, and the clock backs this up. He was 15 seconds (60 Lengths) quicker than any other bumper ran that week, all in Soft Ground. Added to this is the fact that this was his first race of any kind as he is homebred by Mullins himself. This would suggest to me that there is loads of improvement to come. 

Having being backed from 80/1 into 16s, he beat the strongest bumper field I have seen all season, with 7 previous winners in behind and while he was utilising Harry Swans claim, to me, he had plenty in hand. 

By Walk in the Park, out of a Presenting mare, he has plenty of class in his pedigree and I think its fair to say that if he were trained down the road at Closutton, he would be less than half the price. His next target will be the DRF, where he could take on the best of the Irish before tackling Oliver Sherwood’s impressive mare Queens Gamble in March. And, given that he is openly for Sale, if he were to turn up to either race in Green and Gold, or indeed other famous colours, his price will be cut before he even sees the racecourse again. So take the chance now at 12/1 with bet365. 

Stake – 1pt win Fascile Mode (Champion Bumper) – 12/1 with bet365.

 

OB’s Week 12 Selection

• Selection: Risk Belle (The Boodles Fred Winter)
• Current Odds: 16/1 with bet365

Selection 12 sees me dive into one of the handicaps for the first time and put up a horse in the normally ultra-competitive Boodles Fred Winter. This race usually brings in the horses who fall just below the Triumph Hurdle class standard or a horse that is well handicapped (or been laid out for the race JP style).

On that note.. My selection comes in the way of a JP horse and is RISK BELLE. JP has won the race twice in the last 3 years with Brazil (2022) and Aramax (2020) and didn’t even have a runner in it in 2021. It’s a handicap that JP doesn’t throw an awful lot at numbers wise (only a handful in the last 5/6 years) but obviously, if he runs something in it then it has a big chance. Coupled with the fact that this horse is also trained by the messiah from Closutton, I think we have a recipe for a bet here.

Seen so far this season in 2 graded races, I believe he will be more comfortable in handicap company rather than the G1 triumph hurdle. He has run OK in these races but been well beaten into 4^th (22l behind Lossiemouth) and 5^th (12l behind Lossiemouth) and at no stage has been competitive.

Although beaten well (by a well-fancied stable mate in Lossiemouth) by the Triumph hurdle favourite, there were signs that the horse jumped and travelled well and was given ‘educational’ rides by his rider on both occasions. Those signs are enough for me to think there’s improvement to come from this horse and that a handicap in the spring is the main target.

The race is often trappy and there’s still juveniles to come out and play their hand which may mean better horses dropping back into this that currently look like Triumph horses but I’m willing to take my chance now. I’m of the opinion that JP has a couple better than my selection but they will be Triumph bound which makes Risk Belle a great bet at 16/1 currently with Bet365.

Go on JP lets make it 3 winners from the last 3 attempts.

Stake – 1pt win only Risk Belle  (The Boodles Fred Winter) 16/1 BET365

 

Staking a Claim Tips so Far

	Ciaran	OB
Week 1	Galopin Des Champs (Cheltenham Gold Cup) & Allaho (Ryanair) ODDS: 12.5/1	Gaillard Du Mesnil (National Hunt Chase) Delta Work (Cross Country) ODDS: 15/1
Week 2	Dysart Dynamo (Arkle) ODDS: 16/1	Brandy Love (Mares Hurdle) ODDS: 5/1
Week 3	Honeysuckle (Champion Hurdle) ODDS: 4/1	Chapeau De Soleil (Champion Bumper) ODDS: 12/1
Week 4	Ashroe Diamond (Mares Novice) ODDS: 9/1	Blazing Khal (Stayers Hurdle) ODDS: 6/1
Week 5	Proschema EW (Stayers Hurdle) ODDS: 25/1	Jet Powered (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) ODDS: 14/1
Week 6	Grangeclare West (Ballymore) ODDS: 10/1	Telmesomethinggirl (Mares Chase) ODDS: 8/1
Week 7	James Du Berlais (Brown Advisory Chase) EW ODDS: 20/1	Lossiemouth (Triumph Hurdle) and Luccia (Mares novice hurdle) ODDS: 19/1 win double
Week 8	Hiddenvalley Lake (Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle) ODDS: 8/1	Three Stripe Life (Brown Advisory Novices Chase) ODDS: 14/1 win double
Week 9	Barry The Butcher (Champion Bumper) ODDS: 20/1	Impaire Et Passes (to win any race) ODDS: 6/1 win double
Week 10	Salvador Ziggy (Pertemps) ODDS: 25/1	Three Card Brag (Albert Bartlett) ODDS: 14/1
Week 11	Arctic Bresil Without Favile Vega (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) ODDS: 20/1	El Fabiolo (Turners) ODDS: 10/1
Week 12	Fascile Mode (Champion Bumper) ODDS: 12/1	Risk Belle (The Boodles Fred Winter) ODDS: 16/1
Week 13	Tekao (Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) ODDS: 8/1 NRNB	Selection: Chris’s Dream (Hunters Chase) ODDS: 10/1
Week 14	Brandy Love (Mares Hurdle) ODDS: 4/1 NRNB	Threeunderthrufive (Ultima Handicap Chase) ODDS: 12/1 NRNB
Week 15	Galvin (Cross Country Chase) ODDS: 6/1	Gerri Colombe (Brown Advisory Chase) ODDS: 8/1
Week 16	Inothewayyourthinking (Martin Pipe) ODDS: 16/1	Spanish Harlem (Martin Pipe) ODDS: 20/1
Week 17	Coole Cody (Plate Handicap) EW ODDS: 40/1	Bravemansgame (Gold Cup) ODDS: 8/1
Week 18	Shanbally Kid (Albert Bartlett) ODDS: 25/1 EW	Camprond (Coral Cup) ODDS: 20/1
Week 19	Gerri Colombe (Brown Advisory) & Mighty Potter (Turners)double ODDS: 6/1	Sharjah (County Hurdle) ODDS: 10/1 EW
Week 20	Dino Blue (Grand Annual) ODDS: 7/1	Mighty Potter (Turners Chase) & Edwardstone (Champion Chase) ODDS: 11/2

Staking a Claim week 1 Selections

Staking a Claim week 2 Selections

Staking a Claim week 3 Selections

Staking a Claim week 4 Selections

Staking a Claim week 5 Selections

Staking a Claim week 6 Selections

Staking a Claim week 7 Selections

Staking a Claim week 8 Selections

Staking a Claim Week 9 Selections

Staking a Claim Week 10 & 11 Selections

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