Staking A Claim Week 14 Cheltenham Tips – Mares Hurdle & Ultima Handicap Chase Tips 2023

The Dublin Racing Festival is just around the corner and this weekend we have trals day at Cheltenham which will provide more clues to the Festival in March, but first we have the week 14 selections for our ante-post tipping series, Staking a Claim.

You can see all the existing selections in the table at the end of this article and there are also links to the write-ups for each week. That’s 26 ante-post tips already in the can for the 2023 Festival and although some have already fallen away, we hope to go into March with some nice ante-post prices and live chances.

All the selections will be recorded as a 1pt win or 0.5pts each-way and we haven’t restricted the tips to any particular bet so you can expect to see singles, doubles and even the odd treble for the tips.

You can also follow both Ciaran (@murphfinbarrs) and OB (@OB_14) on Twitter where they will be outlining all of their ante-post bets and thoughts ahead of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.

 

Ciaran’s Week 14 Tip

• Brandy Love (Mares Hurdle)
• Current Odds – 4/1 with bet365

As David Jennings said on one of the lesser known Cheltenham Festival ante-post shows this week, it’s like coming into your house during the middle of the night and stealing your wife; this week I am picking a horse already put up by OB. But I wouldn’t do this for just anyone. This one is a special lady. I have loved BRANDY LOVE ever since I saw her waltz in in her debut bumper and nothing I have seen since had made me think she is anything other than a superstar. 

In her Novice hurdling campaign, she was only beaten by 3 lengths by Allegorie De Vassy, and to say she jumped right would be the biggest understatement since the captain of the titanic said that hitting the iceberg would delay arrival. We have seen what an engine ADV has and I am convinced that Brandy Love would have put her in her place that day, something she did to now second fav Love Envoi in Fairyhouse at the back end of last season. 

Coming from a pointing background, and given that the further she went that day, the better she looked, the extra half mile of the Mares Hurdle won’t be an issue. I would very much respect the Favourite and defending Champion Marie’s Rock, who looked very good in the Relkeel hurdle but I just think Brandy Love is a special mare. 

One obvious concern is that she goes #straighttothefestival but Willie has done this once or twice before, most notably with the 6 time champ of this race and there is no way a Willie’s first choice mare goes off 4/1 on the day. She will be Fav and she will win. 

Take the 4/1 now. 

Stake – 1pt win only Brandy Love (Mares Hurdle) 4/1 with bet365

 

OB’s Week 14 Tip

• Threeunderthrufive (Ultima Handicap Chase)
• Current Odds – 12/1 with bet365

Selection 14 sees me put up my 2^nd selection in a handicap and amazingly only my 2^nd horse that is trained in Britain. Putting up Jet Powered (and him running poorly thereafter) has obviously scarred me and its taken a while to come around to another. Now I’ve regained my confidence, I’m tipping one based on a number of key trends this horse hits for such a race.

Threeunderthrufive (12/1) for champion trainer Paul Nichols is the horse I’m confident will have a say in the 3m Ultima handicap chase on Day 1 of the festival. I’ve toyed with this horse for a couple of weeks as he was as big as 25/1 a couple of weeks ago and it’s hard knowing you’ve missed a big price. However, I still think 12/1 is a fair enough price and I believe he will be shorter than this come the day. Below are some of the key trends associated with this race:

• 7 of the last 10 winners are 1^st or 2^nd season chasers
• Britain have won the last 10 renewals
• 4 of the last 10 winners have run in the equivalent to the Hennessy
• All of the last 10 winners have ran at Cheltenham before with 6 winning
• Winner averages 9 chase starts
• 7 of the last 10 winners were beaten on their last start

Now it’s quite the thing just how many boxes this horse ticks on the trends for this race. ALL OF THEM.  Albeit he UR at the first in the Hennessy and didn’t really have a race, it’s still a race that winners target on the way to the festival.

My horse was last seen finishing 6^th, beaten 17 lengths in the Classic Chase 2 weeks ago and some bookies have non runner no bet for every Cheltenham 2023 race, including the Ultima Handicap. He ran well for the majority of that race but tired 2 out and faded away. That was over 3m5f on heavy ground whilst carrying top weight of 12st. He clearly doesn’t stay the marathon trip so dropping in distance to just over 3m (and hopefully on better ground) will see him in a better light.

2 of the last 3 winners were comprehensively beaten in the Classic Chase so I have no worries about the performance he put up at Warwick last time. His owners (The McNeil family) sponsor the race and I believe they will aim him at this and the man in Ditcheat will have him primmed and ready to give the owners their first success in this race.

Stake – 1pt win only Threeunderthrufive (The Ultima handicap chase) 12/1 with bet365.

 

Staking a Claim Tips so Far

	Ciaran	OB
Week 1	Galopin Des Champs (Cheltenham Gold Cup) & Allaho (Ryanair) ODDS: 12.5/1	Gaillard Du Mesnil (National Hunt Chase) Delta Work (Cross Country) ODDS: 15/1
Week 2	Dysart Dynamo (Arkle) ODDS: 16/1	Brandy Love (Mares Hurdle) ODDS: 5/1
Week 3	Honeysuckle (Champion Hurdle) ODDS: 4/1	Chapeau De Soleil (Champion Bumper) ODDS: 12/1
Week 4	Ashroe Diamond (Mares Novice) ODDS: 9/1	Blazing Khal (Stayers Hurdle) ODDS: 6/1
Week 5	Proschema EW (Stayers Hurdle) ODDS: 25/1	Jet Powered (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) ODDS: 14/1
Week 6	Grangeclare West (Ballymore) ODDS: 10/1	Telmesomethinggirl (Mares Chase) ODDS: 8/1
Week 7	James Du Berlais (Brown Advisory Chase) EW ODDS: 20/1	Lossiemouth (Triumph Hurdle) and Luccia (Mares novice hurdle) ODDS: 19/1 win double
Week 8	Hiddenvalley Lake (Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle) ODDS: 8/1	Three Stripe Life (Brown Advisory Novices Chase) ODDS: 14/1 win double
Week 9	Barry The Butcher (Champion Bumper) ODDS: 20/1	Impaire Et Passes (to win any race) ODDS: 6/1 win double
Week 10	Salvador Ziggy (Pertemps) ODDS: 25/1	Three Card Brag (Albert Bartlett) ODDS: 14/1
Week 11	Arctic Bresil Without Favile Vega (Supreme Novices' Hurdle) ODDS: 20/1	El Fabiolo (Turners) ODDS: 10/1
Week 12	Fascile Mode (Champion Bumper) ODDS: 12/1	Risk Belle (The Boodles Fred Winter) ODDS: 16/1
Week 13	Tekao (Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) ODDS: 8/1 NRNB	Selection: Chris’s Dream (Hunters Chase) ODDS: 10/1
Week 14	Brandy Love (Mares Hurdle) ODDS: 4/1 NRNB	Threeunderthrufive (Ultima Handicap Chase) ODDS: 12/1 NRNB
Week 15	Galvin (Cross Country Chase) ODDS: 6/1	Gerri Colombe (Brown Advisory Chase) ODDS: 8/1
Week 16	Inothewayyourthinking (Martin Pipe) ODDS: 16/1	Spanish Harlem (Martin Pipe) ODDS: 20/1
Week 17	Coole Cody (Plate Handicap) EW ODDS: 40/1	Bravemansgame (Gold Cup) ODDS: 8/1
Week 18	Shanbally Kid (Albert Bartlett) ODDS: 25/1 EW	Camprond (Coral Cup) ODDS: 20/1
Week 19	Gerri Colombe (Brown Advisory) & Mighty Potter (Turners)double ODDS: 6/1	Sharjah (County Hurdle) ODDS: 10/1 EW
Week 20	Dino Blue (Grand Annual) ODDS: 7/1	Mighty Potter (Turners Chase) & Edwardstone (Champion Chase) ODDS: 11/2

Staking a Claim week 1 Selections

Staking a Claim week 2 Selections

Staking a Claim week 3 Selections

Staking a Claim week 4 Selections

Staking a Claim week 5 Selections

Staking a Claim week 6 Selections

Staking a Claim week 7 Selections

Staking a Claim week 8 Selections

Staking a Claim Week 9 Selections

Staking a Claim Week 10 & 11 Selections

Staking a Claim Week 12 Selections

Staking a Claim Week 13 Selections

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