Supreme Novices Hurdle 2024 Tips & Trends (Cheltenham 1.30pm Day 1 First Race)
Our expert Cheltenham tipster Ciaran Murphy has taken a look at the Supreme Novice Hurdle 2024 and picked out his ante-post betting tips for the opening race of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival on Tuesday 12th March.
On this day, in 7 weeks, the flag will be dropped and the roar will go up for the first race of the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, the Supreme Novices Hurdle. If the Melbourne Cup is the race that stops the nation, this may be the British and Irish equivalent. The months of build-up, the numerous torn-up ante-post slips and the more than one too many David Jennings-hosted preview nights fade into the rearview mirror as the best of the 2m novice hurdlers tear off at what is almost always a barely sustainable gallop.
Some key Supreme Novice Hurdle trends that may help us when analysing the race
- 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6.
- Market leaders have a good record with 10 out of the last 12 winners coming from the top 3 in the betting.
- 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous starts over hurdles.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Tips
Only 12 go to post for this year’s Supreme but with ante-post favourite Ballyburn heading to the Gallaghers Novice Hurdle over the longer trip instead of this, we have an open and very competitive contest to get the 2024 Cheltenham Festival underway. Despite sidestepping the opener with his best novice hurdler, Willie Mullins still has the top 2 in the betting in Mystical Power and Tullyhill who are fighting for favouritism currently. I’m happy to take them both on though as they are short enough for what they have achieved so far over hurdles. I would be worried about the latter’s jumping in a Supreme after he has continued to make jumping errors in his races since he was beaten at 1/8 on hurdles debut at the end of November. That was over 2m6f and although he has since won twice over 2 miles, he hasn’t jumped with any fluency and has had freebies up front, which he won’t get in a Supreme.
Mystical Power comes here after following a popular route of Willie’s by winning the Moscow Flyer in impressive fashion last time out. Before that start, he had a break after starting his novice hurdling campaign in the summer which is an unlikely starting point for a Willie Mullins Supreme hot pot. He was due to run in the 2 ½ mile Lawlors of Naas race in January before that got abandoned and there is just a doubt in my mind that he has been shoehorned into a 2miler.
Preference is for the Henry De Bromhead trained SLADE STEEL who comes here after a 7-length second to the beforementioned Ballyburn at the DRF. He couldn’t get near the winner that day but I think the form in behind him will stand up as he finished 7 and 10 lengths ahead of King of Kingsfield and Absurde. He toughed it out on his previous start when beating Lecky Watson and Stellar Story over 2m4. That trip is probably his optimum and it is no secret that connections would have gone to the longer distance Gallaghers if Ballyburn stuck to the 2m route of the Supreme. Having said that, he has the class, pace and stamina needed to win a Supreme and with the likelihood of soft ground on Tuesday, I can see him running his race and being bang there when it matters. At the slightly bigger prices of the leading 4 I think he’s the play here.
- 1.30pm Tip: Slade Steel (each-way) – 9/2 with Betfred (paying 4 places).
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Supreme Novice Hurdle Ante-post Preview
And while trends can help us pick a winner, a skill that could be even more useful is the ability to predict Willie Mullins Bingo. That being said, a key piece in the Supreme jigsaw will be the eventual target of Ballyburn. Possibly Willie’s best bumper horse last year, he is scheduled to run in the Tattersalls 2m Novice hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, for which he is the 5/4 favourite and likely winner in my eyes. Willie has won the last 5 runnings of the race, with 4 of these winners going on to run in the Supreme (2 of them winning). However, Sir Gerhard ran in the Ballymore and if we include earlier winners, Bacardys and Nichols Canyon did likewise and Bleu Et Rouge stepped up to the Albert Bartlett. If he turns up, he would have to be respected but at this stage, my feeling is that he will go for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and as such, is not an ante-post proposition in my eyes.
This view is heavily based on the performance of Mystical Power in the Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle (another race that Willie Tends to use for his Supreme horses, with Vautour, Douvan, Min and Dysart Dynamo winning here before going on to be prominent in the Supreme). With his Regal pedigree, it was no surprise to see him shoot to the top of the market after this win, achieving the second-highest Timeform rating of the year in the process. However, with another run before the festival unlikely, he will have had only 2 starts over hurdles and as mentioned above this is certainly not in his favour.
The number 1 timeform rating was actually awarded to Caldwell Potter for his win over Predators Gold at Christmas. However, this was run on deplorable ground and I’m not sure this form can be taken literally. There is also a possibility that he steps up in trip and even if he were to run here, his stablemates Farren Glory and Firefox (confirmed for this race at the weekend by Gordon Elliott) would make more appeal for me. The former should, in all probability, be a 2-time Grade 1 winner but for a fall when coming to win the Tolworth, while the latter claimed the notable scalp of Ballyburn and had a genuine excuse for a poor effort in the Lawlors of Naas. At 14/1 and 16/1 respectively, they offer very good each-way value.
Supreme Novice Hurdle Each-Way Picks
Mirazur West (20/1): Far too keen on debut and gave up huge ground jumping out to his right. However a full brother to Ferny Hollow, to me he did well to finish so close last time out having done so much wrong. A better showing in a maiden hurdle next time out could get his season back on track.
Daddy Long Legs (40/1): Favourite for the Christmas Novice Hurdle won by Caldwell Potter, he clearly hated the ground and had been impressive the time before that in Thurles. The push to 40s is a HUGE overreaction in my opinion. Will run at the DRF on what should be more suitable ground and even if he were to hit the frame, would surely only be half this price
TULLYHILL (33/1 NRNB) was awful on seasonal debut, jumping like the proverbial snooker table and getting beaten at 1/7. However, he was an impressive bumper horse last year (running Dream to Share close at Punchestown) and showed much more promise when dropped back to 2m last time out. Jumping would still need to improve markedly but there is an engine there and he will be suited by the end-to-end Gallop of a Supreme Novice Hurdle around Cheltenham. If he were to get one more run in to sharpen the jumping, he would be my pick of the 3 for my Supreme Novice Hurdle tips this year.
Supreme Novice Hurdle Ante-post Tips
But while the Irish have dominated recent festivals (and indeed this article), the Supreme has actually been a model of equality and statistical consistency. Since 2015, Ireland and England have won in alternating years and with the Irish taking last year’s contest, courtesy of Marine Nationale, this year, it is the UK’s turn. Step Forward JERIKO DU REPONET. The form of his first 2 wins is nothing to write home about. In fact, he is not even in the top 10 Timeform performers and he has the lowest RPR of any horse in the top 10 in the betting.
Sold yet? In some cases you have to just put the figures to one side and go on visuals and to me, he has shown gears when quickening off a slow pace last time out (looking like this was just scratching the surface of his ability) while on his first start, he bravely pushed his way through a tight gap when bumped along before readily latching back on to the bridle. And he is certainly in the right yard. While I have made the case for parity between countries, it could just as easily be Ireland vs Nicky Henderson with the Seven Barrows team responsible for 3 out of those 4 UK winners. He looks like following the Shiskin route to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival and an impressive Sidney Banks win could see him finally put up a rating to match his potential and subsequently jump to the top of the market. I can see no world in which he is bigger than the current 5/1 on the day and so I couldn’t put anyone off a bet on current prices.
Supreme Novice Hurdle Win and Each-way Bets
Jeriko Du Reponet – 5/1 with Betfred’s Cheltenham sign-up offer.
Tullyhill – 33/1 NRNB with Skybet.
Follow Ciaran on Twitter for more Cheltenham ante-post tips @Murphfinbarrs.
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Supreme Novice’ Hurdle Trends 2024
Ahead of the 2024 Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, punters will use trends to consider which horse to bet on and there are always strong trends for a race such as this one. As we get closer to the 2023 Cheltenham Festival we will be able to narrow down the horses based on the Supreme trends.
- Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
- Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 11 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Supreme Novices Hurdle, 10/12 winners ran within the last 66 days
- 4/12 winners ran in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on their last run, 4 of the 4 won, 0 placed
- 2/12 winners ran in the Tolworth Hurdle (Sandown) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won, 0 placed
- Previous Course Form – 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham , 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 8/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
- Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 148 or higher
- Graded Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
- Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 9/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins that season
Cheltenham Day 1 Tips
*Click the race name to read our in-depth preview of the race with ante-post betting tips
| Race | Tip | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Supreme Novice Hurdle | Slade Steel (EW) | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - Arkle | Gaelic Warrior | 7/2 |
| 2.50pm - Ultima Handicap | Chianti Classico (EW) | 15/2 |
| Trelawne (EW) | 15/2 | |
| 3.30pm - Champion Hurdle | Iberico Lord W/O State Man AND Irish Point | 15/8 |
| 4.10pm - Mares' Hurdle | Telmesomethinggirl WITHOUT Lossiemouth AND Ashroe Diamond (EW) | 5/1 |
| 4.50pm - Boodles Fred Winter | Palamon (EW) | 20/1 |
| Ose Partir (EW) | 14/1 | |
| 5.30pm - National Hunt Chase | Salvador Ziggy | 11/2 |
Cheltenham Day 2 Tips
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle | Predators Gold (ew) | 10/1 Bet |
| 2.10pm - Brown Advisory Novice Chase | Fact to File | 10/11 |
| 2.50pm - Coral Cup | Guard Your Dreams (ew) | 25/1 |
| Brazil (ew) | 16/1 | |
| 3.30pm - Queen Mother Champion Chase | El Fabiolo double with Ballyburn (1.30pm) | 5/4 |
| 4.10pm - Cross Country Chase | Coko Beach | 4/1 |
| 4.50pm - Grand Annual Chase | Liberty Hunter (ew) | 13/2 |
| 5.30pm - Champion Bumper | C’est Ta Chance (ew) | 16/1 |
| Cantico (ew) | 12/1 |
Cheltenham Day 3 Tips
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Turners Novice Chase | Ginnys Destiny | 4/1 |
| 2.10pm - Pertemps Network Final | Cuthbertdibble | 9/1 |
| 2.50pm - Ryanair Chase | Stage Star | 9/2 |
| 3.30pm - Stayers Hurdle | Teahupoo | 7/4 |
| 4.10pm - Plate Handicap Chase | Theatre Man (ew) | 9/2 |
| 4.50pm - Mares Novice Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead | 13/8 |
| 5.30pm - Kim Muir Chase | Whacker Clan | 12/1 |
Cheltenham Day 4 Tips
| Race | Tip | Bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Triumph Hurdle | Majborough | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - County Hurdle | King of Kingsfield | 5/1 |
| So Scottish (ew) | 14/1 | |
| 2.50pm - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle | Gidleigh Park | 7/1 |
| 3.30pm - Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs | 11/10 |
| 4.10pm - Festival Challenge Cup Hunters Chase | It's on the Line | 9/4 |
| Premier Magic | 13/2 | |
| 4.50pm - Paddy Power Mares Chase | Riviere D’Etel (each-way) | 20/1 |
| 5.30pm - Martin Pipe Hurdle | Better Days Ahead | 10/1 |
