Which Cheltenham Festival 2023 Favourites should be avoided?

Each year, punters head into the week of Cheltenham with Yankees, lucky 15s, Canadians, Goliaths and bets you have never even heard of made up of Cheltenham favourites, but how many of the shorter odds horses will win this year?

This year, of the 19 non-handicap races, only the Albert Bartlett has a favourite priced above 7/2. Here I will outline 4 current favourites that I believe you should be swerving. For the purposes of this article, I am not including the aforementioned AB fav Embassy Gardens (11/2) who is a short price in without a doubt the most open Grade 1 of the week. 

 

How many favourites win at Cheltenham each year?

There are a total of 28 races across the four days of the Cheltenham Festival and it is interesting that there is always around the same amount of favourites that win. 2022 was an anomaly, however, with 12 favourites winning compared to 7, 8 or 9 in the seven years previous. This was partly due to the dominance of the Irish horses.

• 2022 Cheltenham Festival had 12 starting price favourite winners
• 2021 Cheltenham Festival had 8 starting price favourite winners
• 2020 Cheltenham Festival had 8 starting price favourite winners
• 2019 Cheltenham Festival had 8 starting price favourite winners
• 2018 Cheltenham Festival had 8 starting price favourite winners
• 2017 Cheltenham Festival had 7 starting price favourite winners
• 2016 Cheltenham Festival had 9 starting price favourite winners
• 2015 Cheltenham Festival had 7 starting price favourite winners

For the 2023 Festival, the current shortest-priced favourites are Constitution Hill (4/11 for the Champion Hurdle), Delta Work (Evens for the Cross Country), Shishkin (11/10 for the Ryanair Chase) and Mighy Potter (11/8 for the Turners).

Which of this year’s favourites will get beat at Cheltenham? We take a look at four that you should take on in the betting. 

 

MARES HURDLE: Honeysuckle (9/4)

Unthinkable 12 months ago when she won her second Champion Hurdle that she would line up in this contest, it is unfathomable that we would be taking her on in this contest. In fact in my STAKING A CLAIM ante-post column, I actually put her up as a bet at 4/1 against Constitution Hill. If you are still reading, thank you. My thinking at the time was that while the form of her latest 2 festival victories wasn’t outstanding, that she would have more in the tank when needed. That is clearly now not true and she has to eye been pretty regressive this year. The RPR of 146 she achieved was her lowest in 3 years and she never threatened to land a blow in that race. 

The fact that she is the favourite in, what for me, is the most competitive graded race of day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival is purely on a combination of sentiment and reputation, rather than form.

Defending champion Marie’s Rock should be the favourite. The RPR of 158 achieved in her Relkeel hurdle against the Geldings is the standout piece of form in the race. That said, my guess is that she will line up in the Stayers (more of that later on). Even still, we have Brandy Love, Love Envoi, Epatante and Echoes in Rain running for us, all of who seem to have overtaken her if Racing post and Timeform ratings are to be believed. Of those, I would take the Mullins pair, with slight preference at the prices for Brandy Love who shaped well for a long way on her reappearance and will no doubt improve for the run and a return to a left-handed track.

 

BALLYMORE NOVICES HURDLE: Hermes Allen (11/4)

Priced at 11/4 with one firm but a general 9/4 shot, Hermes Allen is a rare British Favourite in a Grade 1 contest. This alone would give you a reason to oppose him at the prices given the British record in Grade 1s in recent times. (20 winners in 60 Grade 1s since 2019). And not many of them would have started off their year in Stratford. A 9-length defeat of Music Dive (beaten 41 lengths off 129 in a Handicap last time out) doesn’t read well. His subsequent win was in the Challow hurdle, which has not produced a festival winner in recent memory. 

Next up in the betting who is rated 153 over hurdles in Ireland and Impaire Et Passe who has been very impressive in 2 victories this year. The standout piece of form for me is Good Lands’ win in the Nathaniel Lacy Hurdle at the DRF while Champ Kiely comes in off the back of a win in the Lawlors of Naas Hurdle, a race which has given us the winner of the Ballymore in 2 of the last 3 years. 

 

CHAMPION BUMPER: It’s For Me (7/2)

While Willie Mullins has won this race in 4 of the last 5 years, only one of these wins was with the stable’s first choice. It’s For Me was a visually impressive winner on debut but the form of a 10l defeat of Sutton Hill looks a little less strong after the latter’s 40-length defeat by a 66/1 shot in Aa Maiden Hurdle this week. 

Only 3 of the last 14 favourites have won the Champion Bumper and while we are still awaiting the entries for this race, there will without doubt be strong competition. Willie himself will have several in the race who have all won their bumpers (Ppossibly Western Diego, Westport Cove, Ballyburn, Fun Fun, Fun) but the biggest challenge may come from A Dream to Share who coasted to victory in the Grade 2 Bumper at the DRF and was subsequently bought by JP McManus. I do think It’s For Me is a very good horse, but in a very open contest, I am happy to take him on. 

 

STAYERS HURDLE: Blazing Khal (11/4)

A general 9/4 shot, followed in the betting by 7/2 shot Teahupoo, the Stayers Hurdle in one where I want to take on the top 2 in the market. Starting with the favourite, while Charles Byrnes is undoubtedly a genius, this horse has had far from a smooth preparation for the race. He shot to the head of the market with a win in the Boyne Hurdle, his first race in 15 months. There is the worry that after such a long layoff and with only a month to recover, he may bounce. His 2 novice hurdle wins over Gellino Bello in Cheltenham must also now be viewed less favourably given that horses form this year. 

Teahupoo’s record on ground with Good in the description is abysmal. He finished last in each of these two races, one of which was at last year’s festival when he didn’t seem to enjoy the track. His only run over 3m was in the Galmoy hurdle where the second circuit was run 60 seconds quicker than the first. 

If opposing the first 2, we now likely have the 2 times defending Champion running for us, and while Flooring Porter has been below par this year, he comes alive at Cheltenham. And as previously mentioned in this article, the winner may actually be a mare. It will take a truly special horse to give Marie’s Rock 7 pounds. 

 

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